Will wet weather shake up the F1 pack in Sao Paulo? 2024 Brazilian GP preview

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Round three for Verstappen and Norris on the newly resurfaced Interlagos circuit? Here's everything you need to watch out for in Brazil at the 2024 Sao Paulo GP

Brazil 2023 rain

Cloudy conditions are forecast for the entire Sao Paulo GP weekend in 2024

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An action-packed race in Mexico City has breathed life back into the drivers’ world championship, with Max Verstappen‘s lead over Lando Norris now cut to 47 points heading into the 2024 Sao Paulo Grand Prix.

The McLaren driver has an extra opportunity to move closer to the title in Brazil, as it’s a sprint weekend, with an extra eight points on offer to the winner of Saturday’s shorter race, but he’ll need to find a way to escape the aggressive manoeuvres of Max Verstappen, which have stymied his progress in the past two grands prix.

It may be easier said than done given that the Interlagos circuit has been a crucible of controversy in previous years, fuelled by long flat-out sections to set up a pass; corners that invite bold moves; and tight infield switchbacks that are perilous to drivers running side by side.

This year, you can add to that the close competitive order and the continuing fight for the championship, as well as the prospect of wet weather shaking up the competitive order

Norris will be hoping for less of the latter in his pacy McLaren, as the Briton must outscore Verstappen by an average of 12 points over the next four race weekends to claim the title. He will likely be on full attack, while his Dutch rival has shown that he’ll defend robustly, potentially setting up clashes akin to the ones we saw in Austria, Austin and Mexico City.

Elsewhere on the grid, Sergio Perez will be hoping to impress — potentially for the final time — as his poor form has revived suggestions that he will be expelled from his Red Bull seat before the 2024 campaign is up. The Mexican had a horrible home race, and lost out in a battle against his possible replacement Liam Lawson.

Could rain and a newly resurfaced track provide Checo with one final chance to reach the top step? Or will Ferrari continue to lead the pack in pursuit of the constructors’ title?

Here’s everything to watch out for across the 2024 Sao Paulo GP weekend:

 

Chaos and controversy at Turn 4? 

Max Verstappen confronts Lando Norris

Could Verstappen and Norris come to blow again at Interlagos’s high-action Turn 4?

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Turn 4 at Interlagos has proved a regular site of controversy in recent years. With driving standards and track limits in the spotlight, this is the corner where further drama could play out.

Located at the end of a DRS-assisted straight, the medium-speed left-hander encourages drivers to brake late in a bid to overtake rivals — with plenty of run-off beyond track limits should they make a mistake.

But as the corner is situated just before the technical sector two — which offers fewer overtaking opportunities — drivers often see Turn 4 as one of the best chances to move up the running order, while giving their opponents minimal opportunity to respond. As a result, wheel-to-wheel action here is frequent.

In 2021, Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton clashed in a bid for title advantage, as Hamilton pulled alongside the Verstappen on the preceding straight and looked to drive around the outside of in Turn 4. But the Red Bull driver headed into the corner at speed and ran wide off the track, forcing Hamilton with him. Mercedes accused the Dutchman of “dangerous driving” while Red Bull argued it was just “hard racing”. No action as taken.

However, based on the 20sec penalties given for similar actions in Mexico, any driver looking to repeat those 2021 tactics can expect a time penalty this weekend.

Max Verstappen 2021 Red Bull

Will Verstappen replicate his defensive strategies from 2021?

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Stewards award penalties based partly on driving standards guidelines, which set out requirements for safe and fair overtaking.

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Talks between drivers and stewards were held prior to Mexico City, during which “19 of the 20” drivers agreed that the guidelines needed updating in the wake of Verstappen’s aggressive defence in COTA, which saw Norris forced off track by Verstappen — who also went wide — as he overtook. The McLaren driver was then penalised.

Changes are due to be introduced in Qatar, but drivers were quick to praise the stewards’ application of the current guidelines in Mexico City, as Verstappen was given 20 seconds worth of penalties for again forcing Norris off track.

“I think the stewards are totally on board with what needs to change,” said George Russell, who serves as a director of the Grand Prix Drivers’ Association. “I’m glad to see those incidents were punished [in Mexico City] and I suspect moving forward in Brazil what we saw today [Sunday] and what we saw last week [in Austin] you won’t be able to get away with.

“Sometimes seems more difficult than it has to be when things have to get approved. But, 19 out of 20, we’re all aligned on where it needs to be.”

 

Sao Paulo’s new look 

Infield curves at Interlagos

Interlagos has been resurfaced ahead of F1’s visit in 2024

Antonin Vincent / DPPI

Track resurfacing has been a common theme at recent race weekends and it continues in Brazil, with the entire 2.67-mile Interlagos circuit being renewed for 2024.

According to Pirelli, the work “was only recently completed and the asphalt was then thoroughly cleaned, using a high pressure water washing system that removes the sheen that usually appears on brand new bitumen.” This treatment was also applied to Jeddah and COTA after their renewal.

Although this makes the circuit much grippier, which drivers love, it does increase the abrasiveness of the surface. Pirelli is bringing its softest trio of compounds to Brazil than last year — the hardest C1 and C2 rubber is not available. Instead, the C3 will be the Hard, with C4 as Medium and C5 as soft. It may mean that teams consider a three-stop strategy instead of the more conventional two-stop.

“The new track surface could see a lowering of lap times,” adds Pirelli. “As a consequence, [there could be an] increase of the stress to which the tyres are subjected.”

Teams will have only one practice session to figure out the best set-up, before being thrown into sprint qualifying on Friday afternoon. Rain could cause further headaches.

 

Is this Sergio Perez’s final F1 race? 

Sergio Perez after the 2024 F1 Singapore Grand Prix

Perez’s final farewell seems imminent

Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty via Red Bull

There’s an increasing suspicion that the 2024 Sao Paulo will be Sergio Perez’s last race in Formula 1, following a disastrous race in Mexico City where he qualified 18th, clashed with Liam Lawson in a squabble over 10th, and later finished a distant 17th.

His failure to score points for the second time in the last four races ultimately cost Red Bull another place in the constructors’ standings, as the Milton Keynes outfit was passed by Ferrari for second place. Team boss Christian Horner and pointedly avoided giving Perez his full backing — even for the rest of the season.

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“Checo again has had a horrible weekend, and nothing’s gone right for him this weekend,” said Horner. “He knows F1 is a results-based business, and inevitably, when you’re not delivering, then the spotlight is firmly on you.

“When anyone is underperforming, of course, there is always going to become scrutiny on that. And as a team, we need to have both cars scoring points, and that’s the nature of F1. So from a team’s perspective, we’re working with him as hard as we can, to try and support him.

“I think we’ve done everything that we can to support Checo, and we’ll continue to do so in Brazil next weekend. But there comes a point in time that you can only do so much…”

Perez had been retained by Red Bull to provide the team with a level of consistency in a period of constant change. But if the Milton Keynes outfit now considers itself out of the fight for the constructors’ title — with a 54-point gap to McLaren — or feels another driver could be doing a better job, there would be little reason to keep Perez on board after the Sao Paulo GP.

Liam Lawson remains the most likely replacement for Perez. Writing for Motor Sport, Adam Cooper suggested that the Kiwi had done “everything right” in proving himself worthy of the Red Bull seat (apart from damaging Perez’s car in Mexico City) and in his rows with fellow drivers, had demonstrated all the qualities that may be required in someone who just might survive being throw in against Verstappen.

 

Watch the skies… 

Red Bull F1 car in pit garage as rain falls at the 2023 Brazilian Grand Prix

Rain is a regular hazard at Interlagos

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Rain looks likely to be a constant threat during the 2024 Sao Paulo GP weekend, with racing action on Saturday and Sunday expected to take place under dark clouds.

It’s a familiar situation for F1, given the number of previous grands prix that have been turned on their head by Sao Paulo’s unpredictable climate.

Intermittent rain showers in 2008 swung the title advantage back and forth between Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton, as both drivers were forced to make several unplanned pitstops to cope with the changing conditions. It was the latter that famously ended on top, as he passed Timo Glock’s Toyota on the last corner of the final lap to win his first drivers’ world championship.

Similar conditions in 2010 levelled the playing field during qualifying, and created a memorable opportunity for Nico Hülkenberg who lapped Interlagos a second quicker than anyone else to secure pole position aboard an underpowered Williams. The German’s current Haas team-mate Kevin Magnussen pulled off a similar miracle in 2022, as he earned the American outfit’s first pole position in ever-changing conditions.

With narrow performance gaps separating the front-runners and several midfield constructors in 2024, most of the grid will fancy their chances of an upset if the rain starts falling over Interlagos.

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