Will Italian GP trophy earn Sainz a new Ferrari deal or push him to exit?

F1

Carlos Sainz outpaced his Ferrari F1 team-mate in Monza, but his bruising Red Bull battles gave Charles Leclerc a chance to fight back. With contract discussions imminent, the Italian GP could prove a turning point for the Spaniard, writes Chris Medland

Carlos Sainz with trophy on Monza podium after 2023 italian Grand Prix

Podium place followed pole in Monza

Ferrari

Carlos Sainz had one of the greatest moments of his Formula 1 career on Saturday, securing pole position at Ferrari’s home race in front of the adoring tifosi.

Even Charles Leclerc had to admit that he would never normally be able to smile after qualifying third on the grid and little more than a tenth of a second behind a team-mate on pole, but the positive impact of the crowd screaming just a few feet away was impossible for him to resist.

So you can only imagine how it will have felt for Sainz to feel the love after securing just the fourth pole position of his career — all of which have come in the past 18 months with Ferrari — and then roll onto the front of the grid ahead of the race start on Sunday.

Tifosi 2023 Italian GP Monza

Sainz felt the acclaim from tifosi but does he feel the same love from Ferrari?

Grand Prix Photo

The fairytale win might not have followed, but that was never really on the cards anyway given the outright race pace of the Red Bull and the way the two cars were set-up so differently to play to their strengths. In the face of Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez’s performance advantage, holding off Leclerc in a thrilling battle, and being able to stand on the iconic podium as a Ferrari driver, almost felt like a win for Sainz.

But heading into the weekend there was a slightly unusual air about the driver situation at Maranello, with growing focus on Leclerc’s next contract that expires at the end of 2024 — at the same time as Sainz’s deal.

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That ongoing scrutiny is fuelled by regular questions, but Leclerc has been relatively firm in his stance that he’s in no rush to start discussions because he’s set on staying put and achieving success with Ferrari. It’s partly a topic driven by questions that need fielding, but it’s also because Leclerc still carries the air of a driver who could deliver a title if given the right car.

And that’s what makes the atmosphere around Sainz so intriguing.

When asked about the Spaniard’s future two weeks ago, the words chosen by Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur to respond just created a little bit of doubt around his long-term position.

“I think that with Carlos we are fully aligned, we had the same question hundreds of times and we always gave the same reply,” Vasseur said. “We have time to discuss, we still have 18 months of contract in front of us.

“We both want to start the next season with a clear situation, that means we have to take action and a decision before the end of this season, and we still have four or five months in front of us to decide. But we are fully, fully aligned on this point with Carlos and his management and we will have the discussion soon.”

Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz talk after qualifying at Monza for the 2023 Italian Grand Prix

Leclerc and Sainz both have contracts ending in 2024 — but only Sainz has a deadline of this year to resolve his future

While those comments suggest it’s a situation that both sides are happy with at the moment, it also puts a deadline on discussions that has not been imposed when it comes to Leclerc. And at no point did Vasseur say the plan is to keep Sainz, only that a decision before the end of the season is desired.

If that was a hint that Ferrari is not fully convinced about keeping him, then Sainz’s performance this past weekend was perfectly timed.

It’s his first podium of the season, and came in a race weekend where he was simply the quicker of the two Ferrari drivers. Not by much in the end, it must be said, but Sainz got to grips with the low downforce configuration more quickly and was able to find that little bit more in terms of time, even if Leclerc’s ability to stay within DRS range and not have to defend from Verstappen and Perez in the same way left him a threat in the closing laps.

The way the final part of the race was handled was absolutely perfect from a neutral’s point of view, with the two Ferrari drivers allowed to scrap it out for that final podium spot right up to the chequered flag. It provided drama, excitement and tough racing when it would have been far easier for Vasseur and the team to call off the fight much earlier.

Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc battle in 2023 Italian Grand Prix

No team orders in sight as Sainz and Leclerc get stuck in

Ferrari

The fact that they didn’t clearly helped Leclerc more than Sainz, and the latter did deliver a message over team radio when he said: “Guys, let’s bring this home”.

Not that fans would have preferred the fight to be called off, but you do wonder if a different call would have been made had the positions been reversed and it was Leclerc coming under attack from Sainz with a home podium on the line.

It just adds to the impression that Sainz doesn’t quite have the certainty of a Ferrari future – if he wants it – in the same way that Leclerc does. The Monégasque may well hit higher highs, as his three podiums to Sainz’s one this year would suggest, but that has been offset by the consistency with which the latter scores.

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Nine top-six results in the first 14 races of the season is not to be sniffed at given the fluctuations in Ferrari’s form due to the competition from Mercedes, Aston Martin and McLaren in the fight behind Red Bull. Even adjusting for Leclerc’s retirement when running third in Bahrain – a car issue rather than driver-related – the pair would still be separated by just 11 points.

Sainz’s name has regularly been mentioned in conjunction with Audi’s arrival. Leading that project is former McLaren boss Andreas Seidl, who worked with Sainz at Woking in 2019 and 2020. And while it’s an exciting project that could be attractive as Sauber evolves into the Audi works team, it surely wouldn’t be enough to turn Sainz’s head if he feels valued and wanted at Maranello.

His Monza performance might prove to be the race that convinces Ferrari to try and cement the line-up it currently has, or it could well be the moment it became clear that no matter how hard he fights, Leclerc is always going to take slight priority.

It remains to be seen how Ferrari plays it, but there’s a deadline that will feel like it’s approaching quickly given the relentless end to the season that awaits.

Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc: head-to-head

2023 F1 season, up to Italian GP

Sainz

vs

Leclerc

3rd Best finish 2nd
1 Poles 2
6 Outqualified team-mate 8
1 Podiums 3
117 Points 111