What would Mercedes do if Hamilton quit F1?

F1

Lewis Hamilton has been defiant amid retirement rumours in a slow start to the Mercedes' season but who would replace him if he decides enough is enough?

3 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 2023 Bahrain GP

Hamilton chose to avoid the darker side of Senna's driving style

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Could Lewis Hamilton really lose faith in Mercedes in the coming months and opt not to race on in 2024 – and if so, who would replace him?

The former question was addressed even before the season started by TV pundits Jenson Button and Damon Hill, both of whom suggested that if he doesn’t have a competitive car in 2023, Hamilton might opt for retirement.

That was a bold prediction for both men to make given that Hamilton’s motivation has hitherto been unquestioned, especially as the season hadn’t even started.

The alternative take was that after a poor 2022 the 38-year-old would be more motivated than ever to take help take his team back to the front and win that elusive eighth title. After all he’s always made it clear that he’s up for a challenge.

Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 2023 Bahrain GP

Hamilton is now rousing himself for 17th consecutive season of F1

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Indeed asked about the verdicts of his fellow former World Champions at the start of the Bahrain GP weekend Hamilton gave them short shrift.

“Ultimately people creating rumours without facts, it’s never helpful,” he said. “I’ve been with Mercedes since I was 13.

“Having had the difficult year we had last season, I’m still here. Whether or not we have a difficult year again, I’ll still be here. I’m a fighter, and we fight as a team.

“I love the challenge of finding solutions and I still believe that I’m able to put the car in places that perhaps others are not able to. And I love that challenge. Of course I wish to be starting the season with a great car. But it’s the journey I think that really counts.”

Answering a question about 2024 contract negotiations he said: “So there is no hold up with our contract. I’ve always been very, very relaxed. I don’t feel like I have to get it done right this second. I’m in a very fortunate position. It’ll get done when we are ready. I have a great relationship with Toto [Wolff] and with Mercedes.

2 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 2023 Bahrain GP

Mercedes found itself scrapping with Aston Martin

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“So we’ll get there – unless something happens with our relationship and me and Toto get into the ring! Otherwise we’re good.”

It was a convincing response, and as noted there’s never been any sign of Hamilton’s motivation flagging, so why would it start now?

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However his comments were made before the Bahrain GP weekend unfolded. Testing had given Hamilton and his Mercedes team some indication that there was still work to do, but the real story had to wait for qualifying and the race – and the answers were not good.

After a difficult Sunday evening Hamilton tried to put on a brave face and see the positives – at least porpoising was gone and he wasn’t being shaken to bits, and he had a little fight with his old pal Fernando Alonso.

“I just enjoyed it, I love driving and it wasn’t bouncing, my brain is intact,” he said. “All my fillings, my teeth, are still in my mouth, I don’t have any pains in the back. So I just generally enjoyed the drive.

“And I enjoyed that I managed to have a couple of battles, and it was close, but not quite there. I’ve had many cars like this, particularly back in the McLaren days. I don’t know when or how we’re going to do it in terms of turning it around. But it’s going to have to happen.”

He added: “We have just got a lot of work to do. We have just got to add downforce to the car, we’re lacking a lot of downforce.

“That is really where the time will come. As soon as we put more load on the rear and the front we’ll pick up that pace.”

5 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 2023 Bahrain GP

Seven-time world champion says turnaround “is going to have to happen”

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Hamilton has always been a team player, and we win as a team, lose as a team, has long been his mantra.

However there were signs of frustration that the W14 didn’t represent the step that he wanted and needed as he slipped into using the word “they” as a catch-all for the engineering team.

“Last year, there were things I told them, I said the issues that are with the car,” he explained. “I’ve driven so many cars in my life. So I know what a car needs, I know what a car doesn’t need.

“And I think it’s really about accountability. It’s about owning up and saying, yeah, you know what? We didn’t listen to you. It’s not where it used to be. And we’ve got to work.

4 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 2023 Bahrain GP

Hamilton has said team hasn’t fully-listened to his requests

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“We’ve got to look into the balance through the corners. Look at all the weak points and just huddle up as a team. That’s what we do.

“We’re still multi World Champions. They haven’t got it right this time, they didn’t get it right last year, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get it right moving forwards.”

Bahrain was a sample of one, and Mercedes could well be more competitive in upcoming races.

However the fact that over the weekend Wolff made it clear that it’s time for the team to change its aero concept was not a good sign – that will not be the work of a moment, and the task made even harder in the context of the cost cap. Nobody can afford to create a full B-spec car at mid-season.

It would still be a bold move to question Hamilton’s desire to race on into 2024. As noted, his motivation and ability to recover from setbacks has never been in doubt. However he’s always gone into a season with at least a sniff of race wins, and a second year of fighting for scraps won’t be easy to take.

Consider too that he is now in his 17th consecutive season of relentless fighting at the very highest level, never mind the hard years he spent on the road to the top.

Other World Champions who enjoyed extended careers, Michael Schumacher, Kimi Räikkönen and Alonso, all took a break from F1 at some point. They returned refreshed and were able to log a few more years, and indeed at 41 Alonso shows no signs of slowing down.

In contrast Sebastian Vettel, whose F1 racing career started a few months after that of Hamilton in 2007 and also ran without interruption or a chance to catch for him to catch his breath, called it a day at the end of last year.

6 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 2023 Bahrain GP

Will Hamilton look beyond F1 in near future?

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In other words no one could blame Hamilton if he did decide to take a step back, or perhaps give himself a sabbatical next season and the leave open the chance to return in 2025. After all he has plenty of other things he wants to do with his life.

So what if Hamilton doesn’t race next season? Toto Wolff learned a hard lesson at the end of 2016 when Nico Rosberg won the title and promptly decided to overlook his contractual situation and opted instead for retirement, leaving Mercedes with a seat to fill.

Wolff’s long relationship with Valtteri Bottas and the ongoing Mercedes customer deal with Williams allowed him to engineer what turned out to be a very satisfactory solution.

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This time around the timescale is different, and Wolff should have plenty of warning of Hamilton’s intentions. But where will he look for a replacement?

When I asked him after the difficult Bahrain race if he had a Plan B he ducked the question and focused on improving the W14.

“As much as I’m being transparent as to how we need to turn the car around, it is not the point to talk about the driver situation in 2024,” he said. “That is far too early.

“We need to all push in the same direction, the drivers, the engineers, all of us management, rather than throwing in the towel. We are not doing that, we have never done that, and we will not do it.”

 

Who would replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes?

Mercedes does have access to Mick Schumacher, currently kicking his heels as a reserve driver.

He could indeed be a Plan B, and would obviously be acceptable in marketing terms to the bosses in Stuttgart. But having been rejected by Haas is he really the man for the job, even on a one-year basis while the team considers its longer-term options?

Logic suggests that Wolff would go out onto the open market in search of a replacement. The problem is that the truly desirable candidates are tied up for 2024, including Esteban Ocon, the man who Mercedes has long regarded as a future race driver.

7 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 2023 Bahrain GP

Replacement options for Hamilton are relatively short, with No1 candidate Ocon tied up at Alpine

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Of course contracts are always up for discussion, as we saw last year when Alpine paid a substantial sum to free Pierre Gasly from his Red Bull ties.

You could argue too that without Hamilton on the payroll Mercedes will have a tidy budget with which to pursue a candidate. But would any of the stars that the team would really want be for sale at any price? And in any case how attractive would Mercedes look at the moment to say, a Charles Leclerc or Lando Norris or Carlos Sainz?

It’s an extraordinary situation given that not so long ago Wolff had to offload Bottas to make way for George Russell.

Of course it all becomes academic should Hamilton agree in the coming months to stay on. Heading into 2025 a lot of big names will be out of contract, and potentially available – and it will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

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