In the 13 races of the season so far, it has been possible to compare then in qualifying nine times (so removing wet qualifying when track position has a disproportionate effect on lap time differences, taking out mechanical issues for one or the other etc). In those nine events the qualifying difference has been tiny. As an average, it currently favours Russell by less than two-hundredths of a second. But in terms of score, Hamilton has been genuinely faster five times to the four of Russell.* It’s close enough that the overall advantage could swing between them within one race. In the races Russell has had a better rub of the green with regard to safety cars (twice their timing has vaulted him past Hamilton on days he would otherwise have finished behind) and that is reflected in the points table. But on actual raw performance, this is the closest driver match-up on the grid. By far.
Given the huge potential of Russell on display at both Williams and on the occasion of his Mercedes stand-in at Sakhir 2020, that closeness should come as no surprise. Yes, Hamilton stands as the most successful of all time but past performances don’t count in the straight match-up against the watch.
With Verstappen’s dominant championship advantage, watching Hamilton and Russell go all-out in their attempts at getting on terms with Red Bull and Ferrari – and monitoring how they compare in that endeavour – is going to be probably the biggest intrigue of the remainder of the season.
* Wet qualifying of Imola, Montreal and Silverstone not counted. Hungary with Hamilton’s DRS failure not counted.
Russell quicker qualifier at Saudi, Spain, Monaco, Baku.
Hamilton faster qualifier at Bahrain, Australia, Miami, Austria, France.