But it’s not going to happen. I am usually reticent about going all Mystic Meg with my readers ever since I definitively announced nearly 30 years ago that no-one would ever make a faster car than the McLaren F1. But actually this time I’m confident, and here’s why.
There are those who’ll tell you it’s never been done before and, technically, they are correct. But that’s only because in the early years of what is now known as the Formula 1 World Championship the Indianapolis 500 was, inexplicably, a scoring round. Were that not the case then Alfa Romeo would have won every race in the inaugural 1950 season. But Indy 500 aside it was a six-race year; Red Bull has already won more than that this year and we’re not much more than a third of the way through. Ferrari did the same in 1952 but there were only seven races that year. That started what some might regard as most impressive run of form we’ve seen at the top level when from the first race of 1952 up to and including the penultimate race of 1953, Ferraris won every round. But even that was ‘only’ 14 straight wins (not including Indy). There are 22 up for grabs this year.
Of course McLaren won 15 out of 16 in 1988 and Mercedes a staggering 19 out of 21 in 2016, but for the last 70 years, no one has swept the board and I think Red Bull is even less likely to do it this year than were either McLaren or Mercedes in ’88 or ’16.
There are two persuasive reasons for this, one which applies to all teams, one specifically to Red Bull in 2023. The first if you’ll forgive me slipping into the vernacular, shit happens. Cars break down, even in 2023, even Red Bulls. Cars also get taken out while minding their own business. This is far less likely if you’re starting from pole and controlling the race from the front, but it only takes Fernando, Lewis or anyone else who finds themselves alongside Max on the front row to get a bit punchy into Turn 1 and that’s it. All chances gone.
Dominant McLaren MP4/4 had a better chance of sweeping the board in ’88 than Red Bull does this year, says Frankel
DPPI
Which brings me to the second point because, no, I’ve not forgotten that his is not the only Red Bull on the grid. But think back to those two most successful years of 1988 and 2016 and recall the names of the drivers who came second to their championship winning team-mates. That’ll be Alain Prost and Lewis Hamilton. This year Max has Sergio Perez who, fine driver and lovely chap though he undoubtedly is, with the best will in the world not in the same street as Ayrton Senna’s and Nico Rosberg’s aforementioned team-mates. And even when said team-mates are duking it out, they still provide a natural buffer to the rest of the grid. This year, and increasingly, Max hasn’t got that.
I’m also interested to see how quickly Mercedes can close the gap now that it has a truly competitive car because, as I have said before, nobody develops a car through a season like the team from Brackley. If an absolute mutt like last year’s car can be turned into a race winner, which it was, I see no reason at all why the same can’t be said for the far quicker car it has finally developed for this year. And then there’s Fernando and Aston Martin: I’d not bet against him springing a surprise or two before the year is out either.
So, and in short, Red Bull may well become the first team to win 20 races in a season, it may even win 21. But the whole lot? Even at 7/2 that’s not a bet I’d be willing to take. Meg out.