Random fortune of the safety car: When F1's lady luck favoured Daniel Ricciardo

F1

Lando Norris was one safety car away from race victory in the 2024 Azerbaijan GP; Mark Hughes rewinds seven years, to when Daniel Ricciardo showed how F1 fortunes can be transformed when races are neutralised

Daniel Ricciardo raises his fist in the air on the podium after winning the 2017 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix

After crashing in qualifying, Daniel Ricciardo drove to victory from tenth on the grid... with a little help from the safety car

Dan Istitene/Getty via Red Bull

Lando Norris was running fifth, still not having made a pitstop, from his 15th-place start in Baku on Sunday with 14 laps to go. Had there been a safety car at that point, he might just have pulled off a major upset. He would have got his pitstop at a 10sec saving to the field and dropped just two places (assuming the others all stayed out). Furthermore, he’d have been on a brand new set of mediums just as everyone else was on old hard tyres – and with the field bunched up he’d have been sitting in that safety car queue raring to go, with what would have been by far the fastest car at that point.

When McLaren finally despaired of a safety car appearing and made the stop, Norris rejoined seventh and despite the field ahead of him being far more spread out than would have been the case behind a safety car, got himself up to fourth by the flag. When he initially rejoined with his bigger tyre advantage, he was lapping 2sec faster than the leaders. Imagine that sort of performance advantage with the other cars nose-to-tail in front of him. It would have been a winnable race in those circumstances. It would have been luck, yes. But that would simply have countered the bad luck of him encountering the yellow flags in qualifying – which is what left him so far down the grid in the first place.

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Regardless of Norris’s ill fortune in qualifying, Oscar Piastri’s victory was a brilliant and fully-deserved one.

But sometimes races play out not according to merit but just to random fortune, especially on street tracks. Consider Daniel Ricciardo’s Baku victory of 2017. He’d crashed in Q3, putting him just 10th on the grid in a Red Bull which should have qualified on the second row. He was running ninth in the early laps but the team was watching with alarm how his front brake temperatures were rising fast. A piece of Kimi Räikkönen’s front wing — the Ferrari had made contact with Valtteri Bottas’s Mercedes on the first lap — was lodged in one of Ricciardo’s front brake ducts.

The team left him out as long as they dared – so as to lose him fewer places when he would inevitably have to pit early to have the debris removed before the brakes fried – but that was only five laps. When he rejoined to begin lap six – now on the harder tyre, with the intention of going to the end in a damage recovery drive – there were only three cars behind him. Ricciardo’s error in qualifying was looking particularly costly now.

But…

Daniil Kvyat’s Toro Rosso broke down, coming to a halt at an awkward place and causing the safety car to be deployed on lap 12. Almost everyone had started on the softer tyre but this safety car provided a perfect opportunity to get onto the harder tyre on which to get to the end. Red Bull at this point played a masterstroke – by bringing Ricciardo in along with everyone else. But because he’d already used the harder tyre in those six laps since his enforced first stop – they would put him on the softer tyre, perfect for picking off the harder-tyred cars ahead of him on the safety car restart. Ricciardo’s fantastic late-braking judgement made him the perfect driver to exploit this situation. But it would probably mean he’d have to make an extra stop to get to the end.

Daniel Ricciardo passes the Haas of Kevin Magnussen in the 2017 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix

Soft-tyred Ricciardo makes his move on Magnussen at the restart

Mark Thompson/Getty via Red Bull

He immediately scythed past Kevin Magnussen into Turn 1 and was lining up a group ahead of him ready for the next lap when the safety car was deployed again – this time to clear further debris from the track.

It was lap 19 as the race got going once more and Ricciardo immediately dive-bombed his way past Nico Hülkenberg.  No sooner had he done this than there was another incident – the two Force Indias of Sergio Perez and Esteban Ocon had collided at Turn 2, leaving debris all over the track, some of which then punctured Räikkönen’s tyre, creating yet more debris as he trailed back to the pits. The safety car came out yet again but Fernando Alonso radioed that it might be a better idea to throw a red flag so that the debris could be properly cleared. Race director Charlie Whiting agreed.

With all the carnage ahead of him, plus his overtaking moves, Ricciardo was now up to fifth as the race was put on pause. With everyone free now to change tyres, they were all on the softer compound which from here would be good to go the distance. Which meant that Ricciardo was no longer going to have to make that extra stop. His race was coming alive. He could be overheard talking to Helmut Marko on the grid how he thought he could probably pass both the Williams cars (of Lance Stroll and Felipe Massa) immediately ahead of him in one go. When the race finally began again, he did exactly that! He was now running third, with no more stops to make.

Daniel Ricciardo on track in the 2017 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix

Soft tyre gamble worked when red flag gave Ricciardo a ‘free’ extra stop

Clive Rose/Getty via Red Bull

Third would have counted as a great recovery from being almost at the back after five laps.

But…

On the second restart Sebastian Vettel, running second behind Lewis Hamilton, had deliberately driven into the side of his rival in retaliation for what he believed was a brake test (later telemetry showed Hamilton had not braked, but merely lifted off). Vettel would be given a 10sec stop-and-go penalty for this. Then Hamilton’s cockpit surround worked itself loose – and he was obliged by race control to pit to have it secured. What that also secured of course was the most unlikely of victories for Ricciardo. He made his in-lap, as he described, “giggling like a schoolboy”. Which seemed apt after the schoolboy error in qualifying, but he’d been perfect in grabbing the opportunities lady luck threw at him subsequently.