The next two circuits on the F1 calendar should suit McLaren’s MCL38: it has previously thrived at F1 venues which feature plenty of high-speed straights and corners — and there are plenty at Losail.

After a disappointing race weekend in Las Vegas, McLaren will be hoping to bounce back with a strong showing in Qatar. An identical result to last year (two podium finishes in both races) would require a strong showing from Ferrari to keep the championship battle alive.

McLaren can put the result beyond doubt if Norris and Piastri finish first and second in both sprint and Grand Prix, with one of them claiming the fastest lap in the latter. That would put them 45 points ahead if Leclerc and Sainz finish third and fourth in both races. If neither McLaren nor Ferrari drivers have the fastest lap in this scenario, then McLaren would also win — but with only a 44-point margin…

Title could be decided by second-place finishes

If either McLaren driver wins the Grand Prix, then the team would only need a 44 point advantage to be crowned champions, because Ferrari would lose out in the event of a tie.

Each team currently has five wins apiece this season. Should McLaren win in Qatar and leave with a 44 point advantage, Ferrari could still level the championship by finishing 1-2 in Abu Dhabi — as long as McLaren failed to score.

In that event, the title goes to the team with the most wins in 2024 — but as both would have six in this scenario, it would then be decided by second-place finishes, and McLaren has 10 of those to Ferrari’s three.

Taking the championship to Abu Dhabi

Ferrari was best of the rest in Abu Dhabi last year; Leclerc following Verstappen home while Norris and Piastri finished fifth and sixth. But much has changed in the past 12 months, and McLaren will be confident of improving on its result.

That said, if Ferrari continues its recent form in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, then it will be running McLaren close, as the graph above shows. Just one collision or retirement, could suddenly swing the odds.

Ferrari 

Ferrari has returned to true title contention in 2024, but will need to outscore McLaren by at least 12 points at the next two race weekends in order to claim its first constructors’ championship since 2008.

That’s something the Scuderia has only achieved at six race weekends so far this season, but with both Leclerc and Sainz in proven form, the results are still possible.

Ferrari’s chances of claiming this years constructors’ title will be determined by its performance in Qatar — a circuit that has previously puzzled the Scuderia.

“I think Qatar on paper is probably the most difficult weekend for us in the remaining ones,” Leclerc told media ahead of the Las Vegas GP. “I think Las Vegas should be a really good one for us and Abu Dhabi neutral. All in all, we really have to focus step-by-step.”

Ferrari’s SF24 has largely struggled at circuits with high-speed corners, of which there are plenty at Losail, and so a similar result to last year could be expected. The team only extracted 13 points from the 2023 Qatar GP weekend — 34 less than McLaren and 21 less than Red Bull. There is hope for improvement, as on the high-speed curves of COTA Ferrari scored a dominant 1-2 finish. A similar result in Qatar may be unlikely, but at least running close to the McLarens may give it the opportunity to limit damages before heading to the season finale in Abu Dhabi.

At Yas Marina, Ferrari would need a race win in order to really turn up the title pressure on McLaren — and it’s a feat that could be within reach. Leclerc started on the front row at the 2023 Abu Dhabi GP and ultimately finished a distant second to Verstappen — scoring the same number of points as Norris and Piastri combined (18). With Red Bull having taken a step back in performance in 2024, he could be the driver to beat at the final race of the season. Given Sainz’s performances — and the added motivation of signing off from Ferrari with a flourish, the team will be targeting a double podium finish.

It could be an achingly close finish — perhaps even a tie. The winner will then depend on the outcome of the past two races. If, as outlined above, McLaren and Ferrari take one victory each, then the title is McLaren’s. If neither team win, again McLaren will be champions. If only one team wins in the next two races, then it will claim the title i the event of a tie.

Red Bull 

Due to a mid-season dip in car performance and the underwhelming form of Sergio Perez, Red Bull’s chances of retaining its constructors’ championship look slim. The Milton Keynes outfit will need to outscore Ferrari by 14.5 points and McLaren by 26.5 points over the two grand prix weekends in order to claim the title — which is something Red Bull has failed to do at every round since F1 left China.

Given the current minimal gap in performance between the front-runners, such results for Red Bull seem unlikely. Even if Red Bull finished 1-2 in every remaining grand prix and sprint race, McLaren would only have to score 24 points or more at both remaining race weekends to remain ahead — something the Woking outfit has only failed to do once since Miami.

And even while Verstappen could be capable of contending at the front, Perez’s woeful form has contained him mostly to the midfield. He has scored just  33 points in his last ten grand prix appearances compared to his team-mate’s 148 — which has limited Red Bull’s scoring ability drastically.

The Mexican would have to find a career-saving turn in form over the last three rounds of the season to hand his team even the slightest chance of winning this year’s constructors’ title.