For the first time in three consecutive seasons, Red Bull‘s performance is looking less than supreme. After a dominant 1-2 finish at the Hungaroring, McLaren is now the team to beat. Victory at the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix for the Woking outfit would be even more significant, showing that the race for the championship is well and truly on.

That result became more likely with the news that Max Verstappen will use a brand new engine at Spa-Francorchamps, exceeding his season allocation and taking a ten-place grid penalty as a result.

It’s the third year in a row that Verstappen has incurred a grid penalty at Spa, but repeating his dominant wins from 2022, when he started 14th on the grid, and 2023, when he lined up sixth at the start, won’t be straightforward given the form of McLaren and Mercedes, who have claimed victory in the past three races.

With over 100m in elevation changes and a mix of high- and medium-speed corners, the historic Belgian GP venue offers a different challenge to the relatively slow turns of the Budapest track. The track has been resurfaced for 2024, increasing the levels of overall grip and likely resulting in lap times up to 3sec quicker.

If McLaren can achieve another resounding victory here, then its prospects of clawing back Verstappen and Red Bulls lead in the drivers’ and constructors’ championships will appear much brighter.

The race could also shape the future of drivers further down the grid, ahead of F1’s annual four-week summer break, during which key decisions may well be made.

Sergio Perez’s slump in performance has brought a resurgence in rumours that he could be replaced by Red Bull mid-season. Daniel Ricciardo has his own career on the line at the sister team RB too, with the Australian admitting that an upturn in performance for the next couple of races is crucial in getting a deal for next year. Several drivers and teams are still awaiting a decision from both Mercedes and Carlos Sainz before making their moves, while a leadership change at Sauber could alter the landscape.

The Belgian Grand Prix should provide some of the answers – there’s certainly a lot to watch out for over the course of the weekend.

Can McLaren genuinely challenge for the F1 title? 

Lando Norris sits behind Max Verstappen in the drivers’ title race and McLaren is second in the constructors’ championship too, having leap-frogged a struggling Ferrari to emerge as Red Bull’s most realistic title threat.

The gap to Red Bull is now only 51 points, with 11 races to run. And given that both Norris and Piastri are in race-winning form, while Red Bull’s Sergio Perez is underperforming, McLaren just needs to continue at its current level to overhaul the reigning champions.

Verstappen’s early haul of victories this season has put him 76 points ahead of Norris, a gap that won’t be easy to close if we continue to see a variety of race winners from Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Red Bull.

But another McLaren 1-2 at the high-speed Spa circuit, following on from the same result at the slow-speed Hungaroring, would offer a further demonstration of its car’s versatility, and a realistic prospect that both cars could finish ahead of the Red Bulls at several more races this season. That would give Verstappen plenty to worry about over the summer break.

But would McLaren clear Norris to take the fight to the Dutchman, or would Piastri be allowed to fight his team-mate, despite a 40-point deficit to Norris?

Max Verstappen’s engine penalty

Red Bull will fit a new combustion engine to Max Verstappen’s car in Spa, exceeding his allocation of four per season which will result in a ten-place grid penalty.

The same scenario didn’t harm his chances in 2022, when he started 14th and hit the front as early as lap 12, going on to win by 18sec. Last year, a gearbox penalty saw him start sixth and the result was similar: a commanding 22sec victory.

Spa is a popular place to take these penalties because of the additional overtaking opportunities it offers compared with many other circuits, but even Verstappen, one of racing’s greatest talents, will be pessimistic ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix.

He’s likely to be starting behind both McLarens, both Mercedes and both Ferraris, all of which have taken a win this year, while Perez has shown few signs that he has the pace to qualify ahead of those rivals and hold them up for his team-mate.

A podium finish would be a reminder that the pace of Verstappen and Red Bull remains formidable, but if he fails to make progress, or makes contact in a midfield battle, then his stranglehold on the championship would undoubtedly slip.

Spa is faster than ever

Shortly after F1’s visit to Spa-Francorchamps in 2023, the famous circuit was completely resurfaced – providing additional grip which could have a major impact on how F1 teams tackle the race weekend.

According to Pirelli, who inspected the new asphalt during this year’s Spa 24 Hours, the new racing surface could result in a drastic decrease in lap time.

“During last June’s race, the GT3 cars lapped three seconds quicker than the previous year, with the same compounds” said the F1 tyre supplier. “Of course the performance level of the GT cars cannot be compared to that of a Formula 1 car, not even using the current, highly advanced simulation tools. But it is highly likely that the new surface will lead to a significant reduction in lap times and a considerable increase in the grip level on the resurfaced sections.”

During last year’s Belgian Grand Prix, Max Verstappen set a leading pace of around 1min 48sec per lap and won the race utilising a two-stop strategy. But faster lap times may make a one-stop strategy more viable. Who will make the right call?

Audi’s leadership shake-up

Former Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto was appointed the new COO and CTO of Sauber Motorsport in a surprise announcement earlier this week – replacing Andreas Seidl who had left McLaren to oversee Audi’s takeover of the Swiss concern.

It’s rumoured the project is far behind schedule, while the race team itself is failing in 2024, being the only one to have not scored a point so far this season.

With the new 2026 technical regulations looming it seems Sauber needs a reboot. Any statements from key figures of the Belgium weekend could shed more light on the scenario.

All eyes on Sergio Perez

The struggles of Sergio Perez have been no secret to the F1 world, as not only is he the only driver from the top four constructors without a race victory, but he’s also clocked just 21 points from his front-running Red Bull seat in the last seven grands prix. For context, team-mate Verstappen has scored 129 points over the same time frame.

While a similar lack of performance over the past two seasons had been somewhat excusable, with no other constructor able to compete with Red Bull consistent meaning Perez could still often pick up second and third-place race finishes, 2024 has been a vastly different story with seven different race winners from four different constructors over the first 13 races of the campaign. This, combined with Perez’ lack of point-scoring, has caused Red Bull’s grip on the constructors’ title to slip drastically, with McLaren trailing by 51 points and Ferrari only a further 16 behind.

Will Red Bull make a change sooner rather than later?