By Sunday evening, the outlook for the rest of the Formula 1 season should be clearer. If Max Verstappen cruises to another win in the 2024 Spanish Grand Prix, then the outlook will be bleak for a competitive second half of the year.

But if one or more of McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes can maintain the challenge that they have posed in recent races, then the fight really will be on — for the championship as well as race wins.

It’s expected that the competitive order in Barcelona, which heralds the start of F1’s summer European season, will be continued on the purpose-built circuits to follow, including Silverstone, Monza and Zandvoort. Red Bull expects to put its recent struggles behind it. Will anyone else be able to keep up?

A return to Red Bull dominance? 

A run of three grands prix won by three different drivers, followed by a close-run win for Max Verstappen in Montreal has reinvigorated F1 after a spell of mainly predictable Red Bull dominance.

Barcelona will be a bellweather for the rest of the season. Having struggled to extract maximum performance from its car in recent races, where it struggled particularly with high kerbs and tall ride heights, Red Bull expects a return to its early-season pace in the Spanish Grand Prix. It expects the sweeping corners and technical sections of smooth asphalt to suit the RB20.

It’s where we’ll see if the recent upgrades of McLaren and Mercedes — plus a new upgrade from Ferrari — will enable their drivers to keep the pressure on Verstappen.

If they can, then a championship challenge, particularly for the constuctors’ title, could be on. If not, then Verstappen may have a downhill ride to a fourth championship.

Ferrari’s ‘massive’ aero upgrade 

In its own words Ferrari endured a “weekend to forget” in Montreal, where neither driver made the final Q3 qualifying session and both cars failed to see the finish line. But its struggle to generate tyre temperatures is thought to have been a one-off issue on the Canadian circuit.

The team would have been expecting to return to the front in Spain, even without a new aerodynamic package that’s rumoured to make its debut this weekend.

Although Ferrari’s pace has not been as consistent as either McLaren or Red Bull, it has proven to be an unbeatable force when it gets it right — as was evident in the Monaco and Melbourne victories. Nevertheless, when asked about the possible running order in Barcelona, Leclerc remained sceptical. “I feel like the strength of Red Bull will be more visible on a track like Barcelona,” he said. “But let’s wait and see. Behind [Red Bull] I think we’ll all be pretty close.”

Was is it a genuine answer? Or is he just keeping his cards close to his chest?

When will Kimi Antonelli make his race weekend debut? 

Earlier this week, the FIA revised its International Sporting Code which previously prevented any driver below the age of 18 from obtaining an F1 superlicence.

The new ruling now allows 17 year olds to compete in F1 sessions, provided they have “demonstrated outstanding ability and maturity in single-seater formula car competitions” and follows a request by Williams to grant special dispensation for a superlicence to F2 driver Kimi Antonelli, who turns 18 in late August, and already has enough points to qualify.

That’s all we know with any certainty now: Antonelli hasn’t been granted a superlicence at the moment. However, it does appear to open the door to the Mercedes junior driver to obtain one before his birthday.