The resurgence of McLaren has provided Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri with a car that can push Red Bull a little closer and take the fight to the rest of the midfield. Should the fast and flowing curves of COTA suit McLaren’s MCL60, expect the papaya cars to be at the sharp end again.
Not that previous COTA winners Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton will be in any mood to relent: Ferrari and Mercedes are fighting for second place in the constructors’ championships, and both came away disappointed from Qatar.
No matter who leads the field, there are still plenty of stories continuing to develop throughout the grid. Here are the main ones you should look out for:
Who will win the race for second place?
Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren have all been within reach of grand prix victory — Aston Martin has lagged behind
Grand Prix Photo
Come the end of the year, will self-sabotage prove decisive in the fight for second in the constructors’ championship?
Ferrari’s and Mercedes’ up-and-down season continued in Qatar where Hamilton slid into the gravel at Turn 1 after colliding with team-mate George Russell, and Carlos Sainz didn’t even start after his team discovered a fuel system problem just before the race.
Currently Ferrari trails its rival by 26 points, having produced variable performance over the past races. In Singapore Carlos Sainz led the field from lights-out to the chequered flag, but found himself fighting for best-of-the-rest points in Japan a week later. Earlier in the season, Leclerc fought his way to a second-place finish at the Red Bull Ring, then crossed the line ninth at Silverstone.
Ferrari’s lack of consistency has allowed Mercedes to open a gap over its rivals, but more infighting could rapidly see the advantage evaporate. Hamilton and Russell have clashed several times this season: during qualifying in Spain; when Russell held up Hamilton in Singapore while hunting the leaders; and during a furious fight in Japan, where they dropped points to Ferrari. While Hamilton apologised for his Qatar error, it remains to be seen whether this cools the situation.
A close wheel-to-wheel battle at Suzuka was a sign of what was to come in Qatar
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At COTA, the target for both teams will be simple. Mercedes will be hoping for a more co-ordinated attack with two drivers on the same page, while Ferrari must look for consistency. Now would not be a good time for either to stumble, given McLaren’s recent form: the team looks to be in the fight for fourth place with Aston Martin, but more podium finishes will see the team start to narrow the 79-point gap to Ferrari.
2023 F1 constructors’ standings
| Place | Team | Points |
| 1 | Red Bull | 657 |
| 2 | Mercedes | 326 |
| 3 | Ferrari | 298 |
| 4 | Aston Martin | 230 |
| 5 | McLaren | 219 |
Daniel Ricciardo’s return at the US GP
After a long recovery, the Honey Badger could return at the US GP
Red Bull
Daniel Ricciardo‘s F1 comeback lasted just two races before he was sidelined after breaking his hand in practice for the Dutch Grand Prix. Having watched reserve driver Liam Lawson impress in his AlphaTauri seat, Ricciardo is now expected to be fit enough to return for the team. He has completed several sim tests and also performed in a Red Bull racing show run ahead of the US GP in Nashville.
Red Bull had previously targeted a comeback in Qatar, but Ricciardo was reported to still be recovering. Any time pressure had been lifted at the end of September when the team confirmed his seat for 2024, meaning that there was no need for the Aussie to rush back in an effort to prove himself.
That said, he’ll want to be on the pace immediately, given that Lawson remains in the wings, having delivered a debut points finish in Singapore and beaten team-mate Yuki Tsunoda at Zandvoort and Suzuka.
There are also question marks over Sergio Perez’s status, and Ricciardo looks to be in prime position should a seat at Red Bull become available — as long as he can show that he has the pace of old.
Sergio Perez’s future in doubt
Will Sergio Perez remain in a Red Bull seat for 2024?
Red Bull
Red Bull’s 2024 driver line-up may be confirmed but that has done nothing to stop the swirl of rumours surrounding Sergio Perez. Since winning the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in April, there has been little for the Red Bull driver to cheer about as the chasm between his and team-mate Verstappen’s performances has widened.
There are suggestions that he may choose to retire at the end of the year, as well as rumours of an ultimatum for him to secure second-place in the drivers’ standings or lose his place for next year.
Although Red Bull is known for his ruthlessness, the team appears to have been left with little choice but to consider its options.
Since returning from the summer break, Perez has secured just one podium finish in Zandvoort, while also qualifying no higher than fifth on the grid; his last front row start came 13 races ago in Miami. In the same time period, Verstappen has scored four race victories and set four pole position lap times, while also clinching his third consecutive drivers’ crown.
Perez is currently second in the drivers’ standings but with Hamilton only 30 points behind him and a sprint race weekend ahead, he can’t afford a repeat of his Qatar performance. The weekend was another to forget after he crashed in the sprint and finished tenth in the Grand Prix and he now risks being drawn into a battle for the runner-up spot.
Should his time with the team end prematurely, Red Bull has numerous options. Ricciardo is the most obvious choice, given his experience and positive impression with Red Bull and AlphaTauri since joining from McLaren. Yuki Tsunoda has continued to show impressive improvement, but would be a surprise promotion, as would Lawson, despite his impact so far. If no internal candidate fits, then Red Bull would have no shortage of interest from outside the team.
Logan Sargeant still in search of a point
Sargeant failed to finish yet again during the Qatar sprint — are his F1 days numbered?
Grand Prix Photo
Logan Sargeant arrives back in America on a run of form that neither he nor his home fans can dress up. He span out of the Qatar sprint race and then retired in the Grand Prix, feeling unwell in the sweltering conditions. That wasn’t his fault but did make it the fourth time that he has failed to finish in the past seven grands prix and he’s now running out of time to score the points that he needs to secure his seat on the grid next year.
He has been very publicly backed by the team: Williams boss James Vowles recorded a message after Sargeant retired from the Japanese Grand Prix, emphasising how it was working “continuously” with Sargeant to help him meet this season’s targets. “We want him to succeed, and we want him in the car next year,” he said.
Can home support at COTA provide a timely boost? With just five races to go in his debut F1 campaign, he remains the only driver to have competed in every race this season without scoring a championship point. Williams also remains the only team on the grid not to have confirmed its full 2024 driver line-up.
More scorching temperatures predicted at the US Grand Prix
The Qatar GP was a ‘hellish’ race for many drivers
Getty Images
From the sweltering heat of the Qatari desert, to the blazing temperatures of Texas: the ice baths could reappear this weekend at COTA with forecasts predicting more than 30C heat throughout the weekend.
The conditions in Qatar caused serious safety concerns, as drivers suffered from dehydration and were physically sick in their cars. However, there’s less concern for the United States Grand Prix due to some key differences.
Crucially, humidity should be significantly lower: Unlike the 60%-70% conditions at Losail, forecasts predict 25%-30% humidity during the afternoons in Austin.
The drivers should also have a less physical race. Jagged kerbs and high g–forces in Qatar led to restrictions on tyre stint lengths, forcing teams to make three pitstops, but also allowing the drivers to run flat-out throughout the race, rather than having to conserve tyres. It was a recipe for exhaustion. A lack of restrictions should see a return to tyre conservation.