Mercedes hopes this year's F1 struggle will make it stronger than Red Bull in 2023 — MPH

The upturn in Mercedes’ form since the Austin update lasted only three races and by the Abu Dhabi finale last week it was back to being only the third-fastest car a chunky 0.6sec off Red Bull in qualifying.

That’s all readily explainable by the circuit layouts and how the Yas Marina track is way more punishing of drag than COTA, Mexico City or Interlagos and that the Mercedes W13 is a draggier car for a given level of downforce than its rivals. Furthermore the circuit features, in sector 1, a few of the sort of fast, long corners which roll the car enough to have the outer edge of floor touch the track, triggering the dreaded aero porpoising phenomenon, to which the Merc remained more susceptible than the Red Bull.

But what does this tell us about 2023 and the prospect of Mercedes competing with Red Bull on equal terms? James Vowles, the team’s chief strategist, said earlier this week, “I don’t think you can truly now, or even across the winter, state that we know everything about the W13.”

No-one ever knows everything about their cars – even when they are dominating. All that’s required is that they know enough. But there is enough knowledge now to broadly understand the root of the car’s limitations. The crucial decider for ’23 will be whether knowing how not to do something means they will know exactly how do it right instead. That’s simplifying in the extreme, obviously, but broadly true nonetheless.

The crucial limitations of the W13 were multi-dimensional in that the floor was prone to induce porpoising, so obliging it to be run higher than it was designed for, the resultant downforce loss from the floor then needing to be compensated for by bigger wings, increasing the drag. Furthermore, the rear suspension had a restricted range of travel appropriate to the originally envisaged ride height, so had to be run extremely stiffly. This stiffness initiated a mechanical bouncing problem separate from the aerodynamic porpoising but accentuated by it. The whole structure ended up being stiffer than the tyres, so further amplifying the problem. After much experimenting during the first half of the season the team had a good handle on the narrow window in which the car demanded to be run and its form improved, though the underlying limitations remained.