McLaren to lead F1 title race for first time in a decade? 2024 Azerbaijan GP preview

F1

McLaren is on the verge of breaking Red Bull's grip on the F1 constructors' title — but can Sergio Perez rekindle his Baku form? Plus Oliver Bearman returns amid potential trouble in the windy city. Here's what to watch out for at the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix

McLaren Baku 2023

Can McLaren become F1's constructors' title leaders for the first time since 2010

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F1 has said farewell to Europe for 2024 and now heads to Azerbaijan where twisting Old City streets, combined with long straights and the gusts that have earned Baku its ‘windy city’ label, give race engineers plenty of set-up challenges.

The 3.7-mile circuit has a history of throwing a spanner in the works of many a driver’s title hopes. With eight rounds of racing remaining, Lando Norris and McLaren will be hoping that’s the case for Max Verstappen and Red Bull this year as the papaya team has its eyes firmly set on snatching both world championships — having confirmed that it will prioritise team points leader Norris if necessary.

Red Bull is winless in its last six grand prix entries — its longest losing streak since 2020 — and neither Verstappen nor Sergio Perez has featured on the podium in four out of the last six races. The team looks vulnerable after its plunge in form from runaway title leaders to occasional podium contenders, and with no Adrian Newey around to fix its issues — the former chief designer having confirmed a move to Aston Martin for 2025 — the reigning world champions could finally be replaced at the top of the constructors’ standings for the first time since 2022.

Fans of the team may look at it another way: Red Bull has a history of success at Baku which is hard to ignore, having won the Azerbaijan GP four times in its last seven visits to the Caspian Sea coast — with Sergio Perez responsible for the last two triumphs.

But McLaren and Red Bull are only part of the picture. Could Ferrari and Charles Leclerc continue to lead the way off the back of a brilliant home turf win in Monza? Or will Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton jump back into the front-running fray?

Whatever the case may be, there will be plenty to watch out for over the course of the race weekend.

 

McLaren set to lead the constructors’ championship

Lando Norris McLaren x 2024 Dutch GP Zandvoort

Norris’s drivers’ title chances look bleak, but his efforts could help McLaren claim a long-awaited constructors’ crown

McLaren

Following on from a 2-3 finish in Italy, McLaren now trails Red Bull by just eight points in the constructors’ standings. The team has outscored the reigning champions by more than that margin in the previous five races, so Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will have high hopes of taking the lead in the teams’ title race on Sunday afternoon.

Should they accomplish the feat, it will be the first time that McLaren has topped the constructors’ standings since the first race of the 2014 season when Jenson Button and Kevin Magnusson (on his debut) stood on the Australian Grand Prix podium.

The last serious challenge for the title was in 2010. After finishing fourth and fifth in Germany Lewis Hamilton and Button maintained a narrow 28-point lead over Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber.

But the following round, a disastrous Hungarian GP saw McLaren drop behind Red Bull, as Hamilton failed to finish and Button met the chequered flag in eighth. With seven races to go, the team ultimately never recovered the deficit.

The boot would be on the other foot if McLaren takes the lead in Baku, with seven races remaining of the 2024 season. Holding on to a lead won’t be easy though, with four teams in regular contention for race wins. However, we’re likely to see an easing in the intra-team battle between Norris and Piastri, which saw Monza polesitter Norris passed by his team-mate and Leclerc at the start of the Italian Grand Prix. Team boss Andrea Stella has said that the team will “bias support” towards Norris who is 44 points ahead of Piastri in the drivers’ championship.

2024 Italian Grand Prix podium

McLaren’s infighting allowed Leclerc to capitalise

Grand Prix Photo

McLaren team principal Andreas Stella is focused on avoiding the same situation this weekend and has hinted at using team orders to preserve the chances of winning both the constructors’ and drivers’ championships — where Norris leads the charge in the latter with 44 points more than Piastri.

“We need to be better at capitalising [on] the opportunity Red Bull at the moment seem to offer by not being in the usual possibility of competing for podiums,” he said. “It’s definitely a worthwhile exercise to review in the specifics, not only of the entire race but the entire race.

“Even on the first lap, because I hope we will be in the condition to have these situations frequently in the future – it means the two McLarens will start from the front of the grid. But we need to make sure that this is the best for the team and the best for Lando.”

 

No K-Mag but Bearman is back

Oliver Bearman in front of Haas F1 garage before practice session at 2024 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix

Bearman is back

Haas‘s Kevin Magnussen will miss the racing action in Baku this weekend after picking up two penalty points in Monza for causing a collision with Pierre Gasly. The incident took his total penalty point tally for the year up to 12 and as a result he will serve a one-race ban.

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In his place will sit Oliver Bearman, the young Ferrari junior who has already been confirmed as part of Haas’s all-new driver line-up next year alongside Esteban Ocon. The Briton has already completed several FP1 sessions for the team — the first in Mexico City last year — and is brimming with confidence after impressing the paddock during his F1 race debut in Saudi Arabia earlier this year, where he replaced an absent Carlos Sainz at Ferrari, qualifying 11th after a single practice session and finishing the race in seventh place.

“I’m excited about getting back inside a Formula 1 car and competing in my first full weekend, said Bearman. “I’ve done FP1s with the team, but to be able to build on that and actually do a full weekend is a really exciting prospect. Last year I had a lot of success in Baku and it’s really one of my favourite tracks to compete at, so I’m really excited to get going.”

The streets of Baku are where Bearman first turned heads in Formula 2 in his rookie season last year. He secured pole position over Enzo Fittipaldi by two-hundredths of a second before taking his debut F2 win in the sprint race, followed by victory in the feature race too. With three practice sessions to adapt back to life in a Formula 1 car and his F1 future already secure, Bearman could be capable of producing another special result for Haas.

“I’ve had time in the simulator, it’s definitely a challenging track, but not being a permanent circuit, the walls are very close and it’s tight in some places, especially the famous castle section. That’s another point to focus on, make sure to build up to speed, in an as measured way as possible. I’m happy I have a lot of laps in the car because this will be my first full weekend which I haven’t had the pleasure of having before.”

 

Can Perez haul Red Bull out of its performance rut?

Sergio Perez Baku 2023

Could Perez add to his Baku success in 2024?

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Sergio Perez may be in the midst of another annus horribilis for Red Bull in 2024, having not stepped onto the podium since April’s Chinese Grand Prix; failed to finish inside the top five since Miami; nor won a race in over 500 days. But it’s hard to ignore the Mexican’s history of success around the streets of Baku.

Since joining the calendar for the first time in 2016, the Azerbaijan GP has been won by seven different drivers — but only Perez has won the event twice.

In 2021, he climbed through the field from sixth and held his nerve during a late red flag restart to secure a key victory over Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton — who infamously locked up at Turn 1 and fell down the order. In 2023, he then put on a street circuit masterclass: out-qualifying his title-winning team-mate throughout the weekend before going on to win both the sprint and the Grand Prix.

Is a third win in Baku on the cards? It appears unlikely, given his recent form and the challenge posed by McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes. But even a podium appearance for Perez could aid Red Bull in re-establishing its grip on the constructors’ title, with McLaren now hot on its heels. Red Bull is desperate for Checo to reignite his form of old. Given the close competition, it needs its ‘Mexican Minister of Defence’ now more than ever.

 

Could hot track temperatures and strong winds play a key role? 

Baku is renowned as a windy city. Its very name is derived from the Persian bād Kūbac, meaning “gust of wind”. So, by now, most drivers are accustomed to the unpredictable gusts that blow through the city streets and disrupt the carefully curated airflow over an F1 car. However, the drivers are less familiar with the increased temperatures which are expected to hit the circuit this weekend.

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This year, for the first time, the Azerbaijan GP takes place in September instead of the cooler month of April. Temperatures are forecast to reach over 30C over the weekend which could have a serious effect on tyre degradation according to Pirelli.

A new track surface in Monza combined with higher temperatures forced the majority of the grid to abandon their expected one-stop strategies and opt for a two-stop, with only Charles Leclerc and Ferrari able to make the latter strategy work. Could similar conditions yield similar results in Baku?

As a true street circuit (the main straight is typically snarled up by road traffic), the track is expected to evolve quickly throughout the weekend as racing rubber is laid down on the asphalt. It should benefit the drivers who leave their qualifying run to the closing seconds of Q3.