Hamilton has won five of the six Grands Prix at the Circuit of the Americas, including each of the past four.
More pressingly, he’s also won the past four Grands Prix, and six of the last seven. If he can stretch his run to five in a row he’ll all but wrap up the title.
If Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel can finish inside the top two, though, the title race moves on to Mexico regardless of Hamilton’s result.
But if Hamilton can outscore Vettel by eight points, he’ll be champion.
Therefore, the title will be decided if:
Hamilton wins and Vettel finishes third or lower
Hamilton finishes second and Vettel finishes outside the top five
Hamilton is third and Vettel fails to finish in the top six
Hamilton finishes fourth and Vettel finishes eighth or lower
Hamilton finishes fifth and Vettel finishes ninth or worse
If Vettel fails to finish or finishes is outside of the points, Hamilton can finish sixth and claim the title.