Hero or zero? Liam Lawson's six-race F1 trial

So far, it has offered no sign that it believes Tsunoda could thrive at Red Bull. His role appears to be as a benchmark. “With six races remaining, it’s the perfect opportunity to line Liam up against Yuki to see how he performs,” Horner told F1 Nation. “In a perfect world we would have let Daniel see out the season. From a broader perspective we need answers for the bigger picture in terms of drivers.”

On the face of it, this involves finding somebody who could replace Perez when his contract comes to an end at the end of next year. But Red Bull pays little regard to contract length when performances fall short, and Perez’s recent form means that he’s under threat of losing his seat at the end of the year, even though the team has acknowledged that some of his struggles are down to car problems.

“This goes beyond VCARB,” said Horner. “It encompasses Red Bull Racing. Obviously we’ve got a contract with Sergio for next year but you always got to have an eye out for what comes next. Is that going to be Liam or do we need to look outside the pool or will one of the other juniors step up in the fullness of time.”

Outcome 1: Lawson loses his seat

The fact that Lawson is behind the wheel of the RB reveals how highly he’s rated after last year’s races and further testing this year for Red Bull. So dropping him is the most unlikely outcome but still a possibility. If Lawson doesn’t prove himself to be a better prospect than Tsunoda, then the team is ready to go down its line of juniors.

Speaking about the options for Red Bull’s next driver, Horner said: “Is that going to be Liam? Or do we need to look outside the pool? Or will one of the other juniors step up in the fullness of time: [F2 title contender] Isack Hadjar or [F3 driver] Arvin Lindblad?

Outperforming Tsunoda is Lawson’s surefire route to avoiding the chop, and the team will have plenty of data to compare the two. While may be starting towards the back of the grid in Austin, as a the result of fitting a new power unit to his car, his lap times and the way he carves through traffic (or doesn’t) will be crucial.

“Last year Liam jumped in and he beat Yuki in Singapore and Japan and was quick from the outset. He’s a tough racer,” said Horner, “We know that. He’s very adaptable. Certainly the testing he’s done for us in the Red Bull Racing car has been very encouraging.

“We know that Yuki is a very very fast driver. He can definitely extract a lap and he can, as he’s matured, he’s got a lot of experience under his belt now. Taking him as the data point we saw where Daniel compared to Yuki. It will just be very interesting to see how Liam performs over the next 6 races.”

Outcome 2: Lawson signs for RB in 2025

Keeping the seat he’s been given for 2024 is Lawson’s minimum target, and if he performs at the same level he did in 2023 when the RB team was branded AlphaTauri, then it should be a formality.

Last year’s Dutch Grand Prix was an impressive debut for a driver who had ben parachuted in with one practice session before going straight in to qualifying. The lack of preparation was exposed in qualifying with a time that was only good enough for the back of the grid, but Lawson stayed calm during a race with intermittent showers, which required four pitstops, and was classified 13th, ahead of Tsunoda, who was given a post-race time penalty.

Lawson was much closer to Tsunoda in qualifying for the next race at Monza, and finished just outside the points in 11th. Then came a much tougher test in Singapore. Amid the heat and humidity, he made it to Q3, started tenth and scored his first points with a ninth-placed finish. Japan saw both AlphaTauris battling wheel-to-wheel at the start — and for six corners. Tellingly, Lawson emerged the victor, thanks to to a forceful pass and uncompromising block.

It wasn’t all perfect, however. His final round in Qatar was one to forget after a spin in the sprint race and a lowly 17th-place finish in the Grand Prix.

While the odd anonymous race probably won’t affect his chances of driving for RB next year, for an ambitious driver, this outcome could be seen as failure, compared to the third option…

Outcome 3: Lawson replaces Perez at Red Bull

Horner has not been subtle in hinting that Perez is on borrowed time. Asked about his ideal scenario for next year, the team boss said: “Obviously Checo finds his form and rediscovers the shape he was in at the beginning of the year and nothing changes. But as we know in this business, two weeks is long-term.”

It wasn’t a ringing endorsement, and that leaves the door open for Lawson to follow former Red Bull proteges Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen on the fast track to the top. He only needs to look back at the two world champions’ spells at what was then Toro Rosso to see the type of performances that will put him in the frame:

In 2008, Vettel raced alongside Sébastien Bourdais. Starting the season in the previous year’s car, the pair were initially closely matched until the arrival of the 2008-spec machine. Vettel was immediately in sync with the new STR3 car, finishing fifth at Monaco, which was the first of nine points finishes that season, including a famous victory at Monza. In contrast, Bourdais recorded just two points finishes.

The Frenchman was dropped halfway through the following season. Vettel was promoted to Red Bull in 2009 and drove to second in the championship.

Verstappen partnered Carlos Sainz at Toro Rosso in 2015 and, again, the competition was close. Sainz’s 18 championship points may have paled in comparison to Verstappen’s 49, but that was largely due to Sainz’s car suffering from worse reliability. Verstappen still stood stood out, though, thanks to his aggressive but controlled moves throughout the year, including a bold pass on Pastor Maldonado into Sainte Devote at Monaco, and an eye-catching move around the outside of Red Bull’s Daniel Ricciardo at the Malaysian Grand Prix. Having already been promised a Red Bull drive in 2016, he was duly promoted.

Now look back at what Horner has said about Lawson’s performances so far: “He’s a tough racer…. he’s adaptable”. The same two traits that marked Vettel and Verstappen’s early years.

There’s every reason for Lawson to believe that he is six assured drives away from a seat at Red Bull.