Has F1 saved its best sprint race for last? What to watch for at 2023 Sao Paulo GP

But Brazil could be here to save the day.

Last year‘s event was a highlight for fans and drivers alike, with Haas‘s Kevin Magnussen starting from pole thanks to a rain-hit qualifying, and an unfamiliar grid order behind him. The Dane was unable to hang onto victory in the sprint, and fell back into the action-packed midfield: the undulating camber changes and long DRS-activated straight aided plenty of overtaking, as did drivers’ mixed choice of soft- and medium-compound tyres.

The 2021 round was dominated by Lewis Hamilton who produced a legendary weekend-long performance after multiple penalties affected his starting positions. He first climbed from last to fifth in the sprint, then recovered from tenth on the grid to win the grand prix.

Can Brazil produce another barnstormer for the third year running? As ever, this year’s revised sprint schedule brings more uncertainty, as teams only have a single practice session on Friday morning before dicing into the competitive action, with qualifying in the afternoon, followed by the sprint shootout on Saturday morning to set the grid for the sprint race itself in the afternoon.

Max Verstappen will likely be the favourite once again, but Interlagos may not make victory so straightforward.

Ricciardo starting to shade Perez

The contrast between Red Bull’s two most senior drivers couldn’t have been more stark at Mexico. A clash with Charles Leclerc brought Sergio Perez’s home race to an end after just 800m, as he continued his run of underwhelming form. Meanwhile, Daniel Ricciardo qualified fourth and finished seventh in an AlphaTauri, just behind the Mercedes of George Russell.

Red Bull team boss Christian Horner was filled with nothing but praise for the Aussie: “He’s back to his old self, he’s relaxed, he’s confident and I thought he was outstanding this weekend, fighting Mercedes in an AlphaTauri,” he said. “And if it were not for the red flag, he’d have finished further up, so it was a great performance and he certainly looked like the Daniel of old.

“Look at the delta to Max, it was less than a tenth I think so a remarkable performance by him.”

Horner’s enthusiasm and the final statement may well ring alarm bells for Perez, whose future has been the subject of much rumour despite his 2024 contract with Red Bull.

This year’s Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan Grand Prix winner has since faded in comparison to his team-mate and his second place in the drivers’ championship is now at real risk from a revived Lewis Hamilton. It would be no surprise if Red Bull was considering alternative driver options.

Verstappen could leap further up all-time win ladder

As Perez struggled, Verstappen captured F1 victory number 51 in Mexico City, promoting him to joint-fifth on the all-time F1 win ladder next to Alain Prost. The Dutchman has already had a number of record-breaking performances over the past two seasons, but few are more significant than the number in the win column.

A second career victory in Brazil — his last coming in 2019 — would move him past the Frenchman and could put him on track to push past Sebastian Vettel‘s career record (53) by the time the season finishes in Abu Dhabi.

At just 25 years old, the Dutchman’s dominance has seen him seize a haul of records and an unbroken series of victories to the end of the season would see him 50 race wins away from breaking the all-time record of 103 GP wins held by Lewis Hamilton. On current form, Verstappen could hit that in less than three seasons.

Could Hamilton become Brazil’s next hometown hero?

Sao Paulo has been spoiled with numerous hometown race winners since its very first appearance on the F1 calendar in 1973. Emerson Fittipaldi, Carlos Pace, Nelson Piquet, Ayrton Senna and Felipe Massa have all took to the top step, and Lewis Hamilton could soon become the country’s next grand prix hero.

Although British-born, the Mercedes driver was made an honorary citizen of Brazil ahead of last year’s grand prix and his recent performances all point towards a long-overdue victory. Other than a DNF in Qatar and a DSQ in the US, Hamilton has arguably been the grid’s most consistent performer next to Verstappen and is poised to take second in the drivers’ championship from Perez — who now lies just 20 points ahead.

But second will not be enough for F1’s most successful driver and a 104th grand prix victory in front of an adoring South American crowd would certainly set the stage for a drivers’ title rematch with Verstappen in 2024.

Could pit-lane impeding during qualifying lead to penalties? 

Minimum lap times during qualifying could be a pesky problem for teams to overcome in Brazil, especially with wet weather set to hit the circuit for Grand Prix qualifying on Friday afternoon.

The rule was revised at the Italian Grand Prix to include ‘all laps’ — meaning drivers must keep to a minimum lap time during both their out and in-laps in order to avoid a penalty. But this itself has created a new problem, as drivers now cannot build up a sufficient gap between each other in order to set optimum lap times.

This has resulted with some coming up with creative solutions: both Verstappen and Russell took turns to sit at the front pitlane while others ahead began their out-laps in Mexico. This caused a slight traffic jam behind them in the paddock, but allowed both to keep to their minimum lap times while having sufficient space ahead of them.

Both drivers were subsequently warned, but Verstappen voiced his concerns:

“Everyone is trying to make a gap now in the pitlane, which is the only place where we can do so. So, I don’t really understand how you can be impeding someone. You don’t want to start a lap within three [or] four seconds of someone, because that’s really bad for following. So, it’s just all quite tough, I guess, to find a good compromise.”

Should more drivers cause traffic jams in Brazil, the FIA could be quick to issue penalties, resulting in a mixed grid order. Controversy often finds a home in Sao Paulo.

An eye on the future: the reason behind Aston Martin’s decline?

Aston Martin‘s performance has declined incrementally since the summer break — having scored 61 points in the last nine races compared to 175 points in the first nine. The results have dropped the Silverstone team fifth in the constructors’ standings, after first being passed by Mercedes and now McLaren.

While Lance Stroll has struggled all season, Fernando Alonso has more recently bore the brunt of his team’s underdevelopment – but gave an indication that the team is focusing more on the future than the rest of the current campaign.

“Honestly, we are not fighting for anything,” he said. “We will learn, even if we have to start from the pit lane, and that is more useful than just spending the weekend [with a poor set-up].

“It’s not that we are just happy with the situation. It’s not the position we wish we were [in], but at the same time we are working very hard to reverse the situation.

“And sometimes you learn more from the difficulties than from the celebrations, so right now we have a difficult time.

“We are trying to do as many tests as possible, giving as much feedback as possible to the factory in Silverstone – and hopefully finish on a high and not on a low.”

After starting so well, Alonso’s 18th F1 campaign is coming to a painful end. But, should Aston Martin return to fighting form in 2024, it could all be worth the wait.

Sao Paulo’s notorious wild weather 

Weather can often be unpredictable in Sao Paulo, resulting in a chaotic qualifying or race day result. In 2023, scattered showers are predicted ahead of Grand Prix qualifying on Friday evening which could throw a possible spanner in the works of many teams weekend plans. But for some, it’s an unmissable opportunity.

The Haas pair of Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hülkenberg have a history of taking full advantage of Interlagos’ ever-changing conditions. The former took a debut pole position in 2022, completing a flying lap early in Q3 before rain spoiled the laps of the trailing field, while the latter achieved the same feat 12 years earlier at the wheel of a Williams.

But with the likes of Alexander Albon, Valtteri Bottas and Ricciardo showing impressive pace in Mexico, Brazil could have plenty of surprises in store.