For a moment Sainz believed he'd win at Monza. Then he felt his Ferrari slide...

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With the tifosi roaring him on and his Ferrari keeping Max Verstappen at bay on the straights, Carlos Sainz began to believe that 2023 Italian Grand Prix victory could be his. But the very pace keeping him in the lead was to prove his downfall, writes Mark Hughes

Max Verstappen raises his fist on the podium next to Carlos Sainz after winning the 2023 F1 Italian Grand Prix

ANP via Getty Images

Mark Hughes

Max Verstappen’s victory around Monza made it 15 on the bounce for Red Bull and 10 for him, both statistics beating the all-time records. But at least they had to work for it this weekend. For the first 15 laps at least.

That’s how long pole-setting Carlos Sainz kept the Ferrari in front to the delight of the crowd, with the other Ferrari of Charles Leclerc not far behind. Sainz said there was a brief moment where he was thinking he just might be able to pull this off; the Ferrari was so fast on the straight that Verstappen couldn’t quite get ahead even with DRS, and Sainz was being super-aggressive in his defence. He was in a Ferrari, leading at Monza, after all. If he could just keep doing it, despite the fact that the grippier Red Bull was obviously potentially faster over the lap, then maybe he could get to the pitstop window, get in ahead of him and do it all over again in the second stint. Why not? He got his answer why not on about the 12th lap as he felt the rear grip suddenly fall away. He’d used up most of the tread and the tyres were beginning to cool. He quickly understood he’d used up more than the tyres had to give, that this was the downside of all that straightline speed which had helped him to glory.

The dream of Sainz and the tifosi wasn’t quite real and Verstappen clinically exploited Sainz’s Turn 1 lock up on the 15th lap to surge alongside through Curve Grande and place himself on the inside for the Roggia chicane. He disappeared up the road so quickly that Sainz didn’t even get to use DRS in his wake.

Max Verstappen alongside Carlos Sainz in 2023 F1 Italian Grand Prix

Verstappen puts the pressure on Sainz

Ryan Pierse/Getty via Red Bull

Ferrari of Carlos Sainz locks up under pressure from Max Verstappen in 2023 F1 Italian GP

Lock-up indicated Sainz's tyre trouble

Mark Thompson/Getty Images

Verstappen had been waiting patiently since about the third lap, which is when his tyres finally came fully up to temperature and he could see Sainz was already sliding noticeably. At one stage Verstappen even got himself in exactly the same situation with Sainz at the first chicane that he’d been in with Lewis Hamilton in ’21 when they’d collided. But this time he braked rather than staking his claim; different situation, different perspectives.

But those first 15 laps before Verstappen passed had been great entertainment. Sainz: “I think what you saw today is a bit of a coincidence where we had a lot of top speed with no DRS and Red Bull had just enough top speed with DRS, slipstream and battery to get to us under braking and that generated a good fun battle.”

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As Verstappen got by it was too early in the stint for Ferrari to bring Sainz in. Not only had he not yet pulled himself out of reach of the lower midfield cars, but it would have meant too long a second stint even for the hard tyre. That super-skinny Ferrari wing which had helped Sainz to pole was extracting a price on rear tyre wear.

Meantime Sergio Perez in the second Red Bull had found a way past George Russell’s Mercedes (George was deeply impressed by how much faster the Red Bull was through Parabolica) and was chasing the Ferraris down. But Leclerc was being pulled along with the help of DRS from Sainz and it took a while to catch. He got past Leclerc just after they’d each made their stops to switch from mediums to hards, but Sainz would prove a doughtier opponent. So much so that he was pushing up against the hems of the sporting regulations on occasion, with his late defences and his crowding of the Red Bull over the kerb. Perez eventually found a way by to give Red Bull a 1-2, leaving Sainz to fend off Leclerc.

The two Ferraris went hard at it in the closing laps, totally gloves off. Sainz was in no mood to surrender given that he’d been Ferrari’s lead driver all weekend and was only struggling more with his tyres now because of his extended battle with the Red Bulls. He chopped across Leclerc into Turn 1 going into the last lap such that Leclerc had to take evasive action, all locked up.

Charles Leclerc locks up as he tries to pass Carlos Sainz in the 2023 F1 Italian Grand Prix

Leclerc locks up and just avoids hitting his team-mate

DPPI

Russell in fifth wasn’t close enough to take advantage, the Merc just a little too draggy for this track but less draggy than the McLarens. They were stuck behind Alex Albon’s defensively-driven Williams which was Ferrari-fast down the straights which in turn allowed Hamilton – who’d started on hards from eighth on the grid – to pass them all once he’d switched to his mediums. But in doing so he snagged Oscar Piastri into the Roggia chicane, ruining the McLaren driver’s race. Hamilton took a 5sec penalty for the incident but managed to get himself 6sec ahead of Albon on the last lap to take sixth. Piastri was in the wars. As well as the Hamilton incident, he’d touched with team-mate Lando Norris as he exited the pits, having been undercut by him. Norris had been brought in first from behind to protect from a potential Fernando Alonso undercut. Later, Piastri made contact with Logan Sargeant’s Williams, for which he incurred a 5sec penalty of his own. Behind Alonso, the final point was taken by Valtteri Bottas’s Alfa.

Even if he took a holiday for the rest of the season, Verstappen would likely still be the 2023 world champion. What challenge is left? More. A Red Bull clean sweep of the season to match Alfa in 1950 and Ferrari in ’52?