F1 race preview: Verstappen's Dutch GP win streak under threat — as is Zandvoort

Robert van Overdijk, Zandvoort’s circuit director, is skeptical of the race’s future. “At the moment, the risks are too great,” he said. “But of course, we are doing everything we can to see if a race after 2025 is still possible. It is clear that the situation is precarious.”

Silverstone faced a similar situation earlier this year, with reportedly thousands of tickets going unsold in the weeks prior to the British Grand Prix – though in contrast this wouldn’t . Organisers desperately blamed the dominance of Verstappen for fan’s lack of interest, before a late surge in sales – mainly caused by Verstappen’s controversial clash with Norris in Austria – helped make sure it ultimately sold out.

Zandvoort will be hoping for a similar last-minute rush from fans who are eager to watch Verstappen fend off the likes of Norris, Hamilton and Leclerc in 2024. But should seats remain unfilled, it could be the only excuse F1 needs to replace the Dutch GP for 2026, with proposals for a grand prix in Rwanda and other locations already under consideration.

Watch out for the rain

Located a literal stone throw from the North Sea, Zandvoort is often exposed to best and worst of all the elements, and the 2023 Dutch GP was no exception.

Two short but chaotic spells of heavy rainfall, the first occurring just moments after the start and the other ten laps from the end, caused a dramatic shift in the running order as drivers first pit for intermediates before switching to softs; and then again intermediates for the run to the finish. The race was also briefly halted on lap 64 as conditions became impossible to navigate.

Nevertheless, 188 overtakes were officially completed, setting a new F1 record. Verstappen was able to weather the storm to take an expected win, followed by second-placed Fernando Alonso and third-placed Pierre Gasly, who had not finished on the podium since the Azerbaijan GP two years prior.

With more wet weather predicted to fall at Zandvoort over all three days of racing in 2024, a similarly unusual podium result could be expected, especially with so little now dividing the front-running outfits of Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari.

Upgrade race threatens to shake up running order…again

Key technical improvements brought by multiple teams have reshuffled the pack more than once this year. McLaren’s major upgrade package in Miami has since turned Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri into F1 race winners, and even Mercedes’ subtle wing adaptation in Monaco sent it back to the front of the field, as George Russell picked up the team’s first win since 2022 in Austria, while Hamilton followed suit in Great Britain and Belgium. But even with just ten races remaining in the 2024 campaign, the development race could continue well into season’s second half.

“As the grid remains so competitive and four different teams find themselves in the fight for victory on a regular occurrence, it seems the upgrade race isn’t going to slow down anytime soon,” wrote Chris Medland for Motor Sport. “Some plan to continue development into mid-October, when the paddock heads across the Atlantic for four races on North and South America, followed by the final two in the Middle East.”

The reason for teams’ continued development has been caused by stability in the regulations, with few changes being made for next season, meaning many of the upgrades which are made to the 2024 cars could be re-applied in 2025.

With 42 points separating the top two constructors, Norris 78 points shy of Verstappen in drivers’ standings; and Mercedes – which could bring new upgrades this weekend – trailing third-placed Ferrari by just 79 points, there is still plenty left for teams to race for. Red Bull’s technical director Pierre Wache has even stated that the reigning world champions won’t hesitate in deploying an upgrade late into the season, if the title picture remains as tight as it currently is — all while keeping an eye on development for 2025.

“For sure the fact that the regulation stays the same and is quite mature now in terms of overall concept of the car could affect this aspect [of upgrades],” Wache explains. “However, you still have the car to build for next year. And your capacity and the budget cap is limited to what you can do.

“I’m sure if we find something and we want to double check how it’s going on the track, and if the fight in the championship is very tight, for sure [we] will bring the update.”