F1 race preview: Verstappen's Dutch GP win streak under threat — as is Zandvoort

F1

Verstappen on the verge of another F1 record; Zandvoort's place on the F1 calendar under threat; rain-fuelled chaos; and the continued development race. Here's everything to watch out for at the 2024 Dutch Grand Prix

Max Verstappen 2023 Dutch Grand Prix

Could Verstappen's Zandvoort win streak come to an end in 2024?

Red Bull

F1 returns from its four-week summer break this weekend to go racing at Zandvoort, with the heated battle toward both world championships set to continue.

Dutchman Max Verstappen has been formidable at his home grand prix ever since its return to the F1 calendar in 2021: capturing every pole position and race win on offer. But after McLaren’s dominant 1-2 finish in Hungary, and Lewis Hamilton’s inherited win from team-mate George Russell in Belgium, there are signs that the reigning world champion’s record-breaking streak of home-field success could be under serious threat.

For this first time since 2020, Red Bull has gone winless in the last four grand prix – reducing its margin of advantage in the constructors’ standings from 60 points after Barcelona to 42 points after Spa. A much-needed win in front of Zandvoort’s notorious orange army would certainly go a long way in reaffirming its place atop the standings, but heightened competition won’t be the only obstacle the Milton Keynes outfit will need to overcome this weekend.

Rainfall – ranging from intermittent to heavy at various points – is expected over all three days of on-track action, making the already-challenging 4.2km circuit a potential site for chaos, as we saw in 2023. There’s also the threat of upgrades further shaking up the running order, or even increasing Red Bull’s performance deficit to Mercedes or McLaren.

The outcome of the race could also shape the future of the Dutch GP, with a “business dispute” over ticket sales with an third party vendor putting its place on the calendar beyond 2025 into doubt. Although renowned venue for great races, could a few thousand empty seats result in Zandvoort being replaced with an alternative for 2026?

The 2024 Dutch Grand could make a case for its survival – there’s certainly a lot to watch out for over the course of the weekend.

 

Verstappen on brink of another F1 record 

Max Verstappen leads George Russell in the 2022 Dutch Grand Prix

Verstappen’s record on home soil is comparable only to the greats

Grand Prix Photo

An unprecedented run of dominance which began in the middle stages of the 2022 F1 season has allowed Max Verstappen to break one record after next, and another is within reach this weekend.

Should the reigning world champion win Sunday’s Dutch Grand Prix, he’ll become only the fourth driver to win their home race on four consecutive occasions – extending a streak which began in 2021. Only Lewis Hamilton (between 2014-2017), Jim Clark (between 1962-1965) and Juan Manuel Fangio (1954-1957) have accomplished the same feat on their respective home turf.

It would be a momentous achievement, as not only would it solidify Verstappen’s name among F1’s very best but it would also help toward tightening his grip on a fourth consecutive drivers’ world championship.

The Dutchman has not won a grand prix since F1 left Spain – his longest winless streak since 2020 – as the performance of McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari has caught up to Red Bull. Although his title lead has actually increased due to variation in race winners – from 69 points after his win in Barcelona to 78 points after his fourth-place finish in Spa – a continued stint away from the front could allow Lando Norris and company to close the gap. Conversely, a historical win at Zandvoort could go a long way in re-establishing Verstappen’s place at the top.

 

Zandvoort at threat of F1 calendar exit 

Zandvoort orange crowd at race start

The Zandvoort orange grove

Getty Images

The Dutch GP is a renowned fan favourite on the F1 calendar, but its future could be at threat, partly due to a “business dispute” with a ticket reseller.

According to de Telegraaf, The Platinum Group in Monaco, which was allowed to sell offer tickets overseas (10% of Zandvoort’s capacity) has been unable to sell the majority of its tickets. Ultimately this could result in noticeably empty grandstands if the situation remains unsolved – not a great look for a circuit with an F1 contract which expires in 2025.

Related article

Robert van Overdijk, Zandvoort’s circuit director, is skeptical of the race’s future. “At the moment, the risks are too great,” he said. “But of course, we are doing everything we can to see if a race after 2025 is still possible. It is clear that the situation is precarious.”

Silverstone faced a similar situation earlier this year, with reportedly thousands of tickets going unsold in the weeks prior to the British Grand Prix – though in contrast this wouldn’t . Organisers desperately blamed the dominance of Verstappen for fan’s lack of interest, before a late surge in sales – mainly caused by Verstappen’s controversial clash with Norris in Austria – helped make sure it ultimately sold out.

Zandvoort will be hoping for a similar last-minute rush from fans who are eager to watch Verstappen fend off the likes of Norris, Hamilton and Leclerc in 2024. But should seats remain unfilled, it could be the only excuse F1 needs to replace the Dutch GP for 2026, with proposals for a grand prix in Rwanda and other locations already under consideration.

 

Watch out for the rain

Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri Dutch GP Zandvoort

Who will be Zandvoort’s wet-weather master in 2024?

Yuki Tsunoda at Suzuka
Peter Fox, Getty Images

Located a literal stone throw from the North Sea, Zandvoort is often exposed to best and worst of all the elements, and the 2023 Dutch GP was no exception.

Two short but chaotic spells of heavy rainfall, the first occurring just moments after the start and the other ten laps from the end, caused a dramatic shift in the running order as drivers first pit for intermediates before switching to softs; and then again intermediates for the run to the finish. The race was also briefly halted on lap 64 as conditions became impossible to navigate.

Nevertheless, 188 overtakes were officially completed, setting a new F1 record. Verstappen was able to weather the storm to take an expected win, followed by second-placed Fernando Alonso and third-placed Pierre Gasly, who had not finished on the podium since the Azerbaijan GP two years prior.

With more wet weather predicted to fall at Zandvoort over all three days of racing in 2024, a similarly unusual podium result could be expected, especially with so little now dividing the front-running outfits of Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari.

 

Upgrade race threatens to shake up running order…again

Lando Norris and Max Verstappen shake hands at the 2024 Spanish Grand Prix

Can Norris catch Verstappen in the race to the 2024 drivers’ title?

Red Bull

Key technical improvements brought by multiple teams have reshuffled the pack more than once this year. McLaren’s major upgrade package in Miami has since turned Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri into F1 race winners, and even Mercedes’ subtle wing adaptation in Monaco sent it back to the front of the field, as George Russell picked up the team’s first win since 2022 in Austria, while Hamilton followed suit in Great Britain and Belgium. But even with just ten races remaining in the 2024 campaign, the development race could continue well into season’s second half.

Related article

“As the grid remains so competitive and four different teams find themselves in the fight for victory on a regular occurrence, it seems the upgrade race isn’t going to slow down anytime soon,” wrote Chris Medland for Motor Sport. “Some plan to continue development into mid-October, when the paddock heads across the Atlantic for four races on North and South America, followed by the final two in the Middle East.”

The reason for teams’ continued development has been caused by stability in the regulations, with few changes being made for next season, meaning many of the upgrades which are made to the 2024 cars could be re-applied in 2025.

With 42 points separating the top two constructors, Norris 78 points shy of Verstappen in drivers’ standings; and Mercedes – which could bring new upgrades this weekend – trailing third-placed Ferrari by just 79 points, there is still plenty left for teams to race for. Red Bull’s technical director Pierre Wache has even stated that the reigning world champions won’t hesitate in deploying an upgrade late into the season, if the title picture remains as tight as it currently is — all while keeping an eye on development for 2025.

“For sure the fact that the regulation stays the same and is quite mature now in terms of overall concept of the car could affect this aspect [of upgrades],” Wache explains. “However, you still have the car to build for next year. And your capacity and the budget cap is limited to what you can do.

“I’m sure if we find something and we want to double check how it’s going on the track, and if the fight in the championship is very tight, for sure [we] will bring the update.”