F1 Fantasy: top picks & predictions for the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix

Max Verstappen failed to reach the chequered flag for the first time in 714 days at the 2024 Australian Grand Prix, costing 47% of F1 Fantasy players 20 critical points in the process while reducing his overall bang-for-your-buck value to 0.8 points per million. Not exactly an ideal return for the Dutchman’s $30.4m price tag.

But there was a more fortunate outcome for those who followed Motor Sport’s last F1 Fantasy guide, we recommended dropping Verstappen from your F1 Fantasy line-up in Melbourne, in favour of team-mate Sergio Perez (with double DRS applied) and the Red Bull constructor; a pairing which earned 76 points across the race weekend.

Heading into Suzuka, the three time world champion is likely to be in fighting form in the hope of re-establishing himself at the front of the grid, while Ferrari — fresh from its first 1-2 victory since Bahrain 2022 — will hope to continue its pursuit.

Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc have quickly become the best value drivers on the market, scoring 1.38 and 1.51 points per million (based on current prices) respectively. They have scored a combined tally of 179 F1 Fantasy points so far this season, while Red Bull’s pairing — despite leading the drivers’ and constructors’ championship — have scored 24 fewer points!

But with ever expanding price tags, it’s difficult to cram both front-running outfits into your F1 Fantasy line-ups; forcing players to look further down the order for some chances to gain an advantage.

2024 F1 Fantasy — best value drivers and constructors so far

Drivers and constructors with the most points scored per million of their value, and their price changes since the last race

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While Mercedes and Aston Martin have seemingly taken a step back in performance since last year, the midfield behind them has become tighter-knit yet just as inexpensive. Haas is currently king of the low budget constructors’ — led by the $7.7m Kevin Magnussen. But are there other options?

Despite poor form in the first three races of the season, RB has the resources to bounce back to midfield form under the development guidance of its sister outfit at Red Bull. For $9.2m and $8.1m respectively, Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda could quickly become high-value assets should the car underneath them find some form.

Alpine, Williams and Sauber could all find similar success, and on a Suzuka circuit where the unexpected often happens, each could suddenly become key to climbing the F1 Fantasy leaderboards.

Read on for our tips and predictions for the Japanese Grand Prix, and don’t forget to join the Motor Sport Fantasy league.

There are more on the rules and scoring in our F1 Fantasy full guide; and if you need some creative inspiration, check out our F1 Fantasy team name generator. For more information on the chips available and when to use them, we’ve got an F1 Fantasy chips explainer too.

Should I put Max Verstappen in my F1 Fantasy line-up? 

If you followed our recommended advice in Melbourne, you’ll currently be heading to Suzuka with a Verstappen-less F1 Fantasy line-up. But while it may be tempting to trade the Dutchman back in — especially now that his price tag has dropped by $0.7m — we’d still recommend leaving him out.

Following familiar form, Verstappen topped the timesheets in FP1 — going a tenth clear of team-mate Sergio Perez — and has been tipped by many other drivers as a race-winning favourite this weekend. But while he’s been practically unbeatable in Japan over the last two seasons — securing back-to-back pole positions and commanding race victories — Verstappen’s success has an F1 Fantasy limit. Should he replicate the same result he had last year (pole position, race win and fastest lap), he’ll earn a maximum of 90 F1 Fantasy points from the weekend with double DRS applied.

His presumed dominance is also unlikely to wow fans enough to give him a 10-point ‘Driver of the Day’ bonus either and his hefty price tag makes it almost impossible to also fit Red Bull into your line-up of constructors without forcing you to pick cheaper drivers.

However, if you stick with Perez, not only will you be able to afford Red Bull as a constructor as well as another front-running driver, but should he replicate his result from the 2022 Japanese GP — in which he qualified fourth and finished second — you could earn upwards of 132 points from Red Bull assets alone. The breakdown below, based on last year’s results, is an example of why it can pay to leave Verstappen out of your squad.

Potential Red Bull F1 Fantasy points breakdown in Japan 

The table below shows the F1 Fantasy points Perez and Red Bull would score should they replicate their result from the 2022 Japanese GP. 

Additional bonuses available:

• 10 points for fastest pitstop
• 5 points for second fastest pitstop
• 3 points for third fastest pitstop
• 10 points for driver of the day (20 when double DRS bonus applied)

How to score the most F1 Fantasy points possible in Japan

So with Perez and Red Bull in the line-up with $50.6m left in the budget, presuming that you’ve followed our Verstappen-less strategy, now comes the tricky bit: picking the drivers/constructor who will bring you the biggest bang for your buck.

Here’s who we recommend:

Ferrari ✅

Three podium finishes and a grand prix victory may have only cemented Ferrari as the second-best constructor on the road, but the Maranello outfit is currently the highest-performing F1 Fantasy team available.

For $21.4m, Charles Leclerc is currently F1’s best value and highest scoring F1 Fantasy driver, with 97 points to his name heading into Suzuka. His incredible race pace would regularly make him our top pick for a non-Red Bull driver, but given his current form, team-mate Carlos Sainz may be the better option heading into Suzuka.

Despite missing a round of racing in Jeddah due to an appendectomy, the Spaniard has amassed the third highest F1 Fantasy points total (82) and has scored an average of 41 points per race so far this season. Sainz is seemingly a popular figure with the fans too, as he’s received the most ‘Driver of the Day’ votes at two out of the three rounds so far — an award which comes with an additional 10 F1 Fantasy points.

Should he continue to improve from his third-place finish in Japan’s FP1 session, his current value of just $19.8m will only continue to rise, so we’d recommend picking up El Matador Jr before it becomes difficult to squeeze him into your $100m budget.

Ferrari also has a history of success in Suzuka, with both cars qualifying inside the top three in 2022. Superior race pace in 2024 could lead to even better results.

Sauber ❌

Despite a supposedly promising pre-season, Sauber has shown little signs of positive performance throughout the first three races of the season.

Valtteri Bottas ($5.9m) and Zhou Guanyu ($6.8m) have scored just 14 points across races in Bahrain, Jeddah and Melbourne, mainly due their lack of qualifying pace and recurring problems during pit-stops, which have left both drivers stationary for a combined 2 minutes 38 seconds so far this season!

Despite their relatively low cost, we believe there are still better budget options on the grid, such as Haas’s Kevin Magunssen ($7.7m) and Nico Hülkenberg ($7.2m) or even Alpine duo Esteban Ocon ($8.6m), all of whom have outscored both Sauber drivers.

McLaren ✅

It began the season as an overpriced outfit, but after its first podium appearance in Melbourne, could now be the time to gamble on another McLaren resurgence?

2023 F1 Fantasy champion David Jurca previously highlighted to Motor Sport that picking up McLaren assets shortly before their leap to the front of the field was crucial in climbing to the top of the leaderboards. So with McLaren beginning to find pace so early in 2024, the Woking outfit could be a good Ferrari-alternative, which can be added to your F1 Fantasy line-up for a similar price.

Lando Norris ($23.5m) and Oscar Piastri ($19.7m) both finished on the podium during their last visit to Suzuka, and a similar result this weekend could send their values soaring.

In a rained out FP2, Piastri was the fastest runner of all — although only five cars in total completed lap times — but with more wet weather forecast for Sunday’s Grand Prix, the Aussie could be a good alternative to the similarly priced Sainz if you’re wanting to adopt a riskier strategy.

Mercedes ❌

For a team whose assets cost a combined total of $57.m, Mercedes is massively underperforming both on-track and in the F1 Fantasy leaderboards.

Lewis Hamilton ($19m), who was previously among the most expensive drivers on the grid, currently has a negative points total after three rounds of racing (-1), and George Russell‘s ($18.7) last-lap crash in Melbourne reduced his value to just 0.57 points per million.

Both drivers seem far from the front-running pace of McLaren or Ferrari, and until the car beneath them improves, they could continue to chip away at your standing on the F1 Fantasy leaderboards.

However, Japan’s cooler air could lead the Brackley outfit on the road to redemption. During FP1 — which was later named the “best session of the year [so far]” by Hamilton — both cars finished inside the top five fastest finishers, with comparable pace to Ferrari. But with a still costly price tag, we’d recommend sticking with either Red Bull or Ferrari.

What F1 Fantasy chips should I use in Japan? 

Now with a better understanding of the running order, now may be a good time to use your Wildcard chip.

If your F1 Fantasy season has not got off to the greatest start, you can play this chip to reset your line-up completely without receiving any penalties for doing so.

This could be particularly useful if you’re wanting to adopt our Verstappen-less strategy or if you’re aiming to take advantage of a McLaren resurgence.

With limited running throughout the first practice sessions of the weekend, you could also play your Autopilot chip, which will automatically apply your DRS Boost selection to your highest scoring driver.