F1 Fantasy: top picks & predictions for the 2024 Italian Grand Prix

Ferrari’s all-time F1 record on home soil is hard to contend with. In 73 visits to Monza since 1950, the Scuderia has secured 20 memorable victories, 55 podiums and started from pole position on 23 separate occasions – McLaren is the next-closest with 11. But even with such an impressive track record, should any of the Maranello outfit’s assets be part of your F1 Fantasy line-up?

In the early stages of the 2024 campaign, Ferrari had arguably been Red Bull’s closest title rivals, as it picked up podium finishes in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Miami and Imola; a one-two finish in Australia; and a one-three finish in Monaco. The results meant that up until the Canadian Grand Prix, Ferrari tallied 554 F1 Fantasy points (second only to Red Bull) with Charles Leclerc also ranked as the highest scoring and best value driver on the grid for a period too. But then began the downfall.

A double DNF weekend in Canada kickstarted a spiral of sub-par results, with Leclerc and team-mate Carlos Sainz only combining for 50+ points in one out of the next five races, with the Scuderia tallying just 242 F1 Fantasy points in total. Meanwhile, over the same period, McLaren scored 321; Red Bull scored 309; and Mercedes scored 263. As a result, Ferrari has been dropped from the majority of line-ups in favour of another front-runner.

That said, after a closer look at the team’s home race form, it could be worth betting on return to front-running pace for the team in red.

Although Ferrari has not won at Monza since 2019, there’s still the chance for some home glory this weekend. With both Leclerc and Sainz in proven 2024 race-winning form and the front-running field continuing to run close in terms of performance, it could be worth swapping in Ferrari’s constructor card for Mercedes — who are just $0.7m less. Should Ferrari replicate its one-two finish from Australia — a feat not outside the realms of possibility — F1 Fantasy players could receive upwards of 90 points from its constructor card alone.

It’s even easier to fit in a driver, as for $23.6m you can pick up Leclerc — who is the same price as Oscar Piastri and cheaper than both Lando Norris ($26.3m) and Max Verstappen ($31.3m) — and for $22.6m you can pick up a great alternative to Lewis Hamilton ($24.1m) in the form of Sainz.

Going all in on a Ferrari-led driver line-up should free up enough space in the budget to afford two high-end constructors (such as Mercedes and McLaren) while leaving room for some solid value options.

Read on for our tips and predictions for the Italian Grand Prix and remember to join our Motor Sport Fantasy league.

There are more on the rules and scoring in our F1 Fantasy full guide; and if you need some creative inspiration, check out our F1 Fantasy team name generator. For more information on the chips available and when to use them, we’ve got an F1 Fantasy chips explainer too.

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How to score the most F1 Fantasy points possible at the Italian GP

Due to its incredible high-speed straights and heavy braking zones,  overtaking can be expected over the Italian GP weekend – if the DRS trains don’t take over. So in order to take advantage, F1 Fantasy players should ensure that any drivers they pick up have either a history of success at Monza or the ability to pick their way through the field on race day.

If you’ve decided to hedge your bets on a Ferrari resurgence by placing both Leclerc and Sainz in your line-up — two drivers who have featured on the podium four times in the last five Italian GP — you should have around $70m remaining in your budget. Picking Mercedes and McLaren as your constructors should leave around $23m to spare.

With those criteria in mind, here’s who we’d recommend and who to avoid:

 

Daniel Ricciardo ✅

Daniel Ricciardo is one of only a handful of drivers on the current grid with something left to prove, as the Aussie is still currently without a contract for next season. As a result, the $11.3m ‘Honey Badger’ is expected to be on full attack for the remaining 9 rounds of the 2024 campaign, and Monza has typically been one of his favourite hunting grounds.

Ricciardo took one of his more unexpected victories at the ‘Temple of Speed’ in 2021, as he leapt passed Verstappen and into the lead at Turn 1 and managed to hold off McLaren team-mate Norris until the chequered flag. A repeat of the same feat is unlikely, but charging his way through the field and his renowned ability to be late on the brakes could pay F1 Fantasy players sizeable dividends.

 

Zhou Guanyu ❌

With his F1 future uncertain, Zhou Guanyu is seemingly feeling the pressure.

From the last three races, the Chinese driver has scored not a single F1 Fantasy point due to a combination of unreliability, an ultra-competitive midfield and general poor performance. In the same time frame — and with arguably a worse car — now former Williams driver Logan Sargeant scored six points. His replacement, Franco Colaptino, could benefit from an upgraded Williams at Monza; and is $2.1m less.

With nine races remaining, Zhou certainly has enough time to turn his prospects around. But until Sauber bring some much-needed upgrades, we’d recommend spending your $7.1m elsewhere.

 

Alex Albon ✅

Williams could pick up the pace in the second half of the 2024 campaign, with a flurry of upgrades scheduled over the next few races expected to push the Grove outfit — and Alex Albon — back into the midfield fight.

So far the Thai driver has struggled to wrangle performance from the FW46 and scored just 13 F1 Fantasy points over the first 14 races of the season. But with such a poor run of results forcing Albon’s price tag to drop to just $8.8m, he could now be a potential bargain for the Italian GP and beyond.

A brilliant seventh-place finish at Monza in 2023 might be a key indicator of where Albon could be setting his sights, should Williams have the performance to match.

 

Max Verstappen ❌

Max Verstappen’s $31m price tag is difficult to fit into any budget. But while he was winning all the races, most F1 Fantasy players rightly picked the Dutchman as their foundation — building the rest of the team around him. However, with Red Bull struggling for performance, Verstappen is quickly becoming a dangerous addition to any line-up.

This is mainly due to the fact that by picking the reigning world champion, you’re effectively limiting the maximum amount of points you can score each weekend, as cheaper assets are now beginning to regularly outscore him. In fact, Verstappen has not been the highest F1 Fantasy points earner in any of the last five races — so you could be much better off saving you’re money and spending it on 2-3 better midfield drivers instead.