Does Red Bull need Verstappen? And who would replace him if he left?

Last year, we adjusted drivers’ finishing positions and points to model a title race without Verstappen and it left Sergio Perez as world champion with a points total of 229 to second-placed Fernando Alonso’s 192.

While that calculation doesn’t take into account a team-mate taking points from Perez; neither does it model the effect on the Mexican of driving for a team that no longer revolved around Verstappen. It’s safe to say that any top-level driver in a Red Bull would have been confident of emerging as champion last year, given the scale of its advantage.

On the other hand, it’s unlikely that Verstappen would be in a position to mount a championship challenge away from Red Bull at the moment. As the likes of Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, Lando Norris and Fernando Alonso have shown, their powers are sapped without a car that can win.

There’s little doubt that Red Bull would want to keep its star driver, not least because of the challenges that 2026 will bring, but if that turns out to be impossible, who could continue to deliver victories for the team?

Lando Norris

It’s no surprise that Red Bull has long-pursued Norris. His ability to drive around the quirky traits of the 2021 and 2022 McLarens put Daniel Ricciardo in the shade, comparable to the way that Verstappen regularly manages to wring much more from his car than Sergio Perez.

McLaren batted away interest from Red Bull with a contract extension earlier this year and Norris since said that it would not have been a “smart move” to join a team that is “built around” Verstappen. You would assume that replacing Verstappen would carry more appeal — depending on how easy it would be to wriggle out of his contract.

Alongside Verstappen, he would have likely formed F1’s most powerful pairing; in a team built around him, it’s hard to see him doing anything but thrive.

But then, given the contract situation, maybe Red Bull won’t need a driver with Norris’s proven adaptability, given that the focus on Verstappen will no longer be there.

Carlos Sainz

The former Toro Rosso driver left the Red Bull stable to seek his fortune with Renault, and remained searching with McLaren and Ferrari.

Cruising under the radar, he beat Norris during both seasons at McLaren; outscored Charles Leclerc in his first season with Ferrari. He dipped in 2022 but recovered last year with 200 championship points to Leclerc’s 206.

Lacking only a top drive to reveal his championship potential, and out of contract for 2025. Sainz may well be an ideal replacement for Verstappen, even if the suspicion remains that he lacks the extra gear that the greats have.

George Russell

Russell addressed the hypothetical situation of Verstappen signing for Mercedes ahead of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. “I believe I can beat anybody on the grid.,” he said. “Having Lewis as my benchmark for the last couple of years..It’s been a pretty good benchmark and I think any team wants to have the best driver line-up possible. Right now, Max is the best driver on the grid. If any team had a chance to sign Max, they’ll 100% be taking it.”

In reality, however, the scenario might be more troubling than Russell lets on, given Toto Wolff’s determination not to miss out on the next big sensation: F2 driver Kimi Antonelli currently occupying that space in the Mercedes team principal’s eyes.

A promotion for the young Italian is envisaged in the next two years. and a scenario that included Verstappen, it could see Russell out of favour. In which case, a move in the other direction to Red Bull may well make sense.

Fernando Alonso

Let’s not forget that the Red Bull team exists to market a fizzy drink. And Fernando Alonso can be relied on for headlines, whether from his on-track magic; his fiery radio messages; or his knowing social media posts.

His Aston Martin performances last year have shown that he still has the pace and hunger to fight at the front, while his experience should prove invaluable in development.

Could Alonso make a move into a championship-winning team at the right time, or would he once more join a team on the way down at the advent of new engine regulations?

Alex Albon

The Williams driver has shown steel behind his affable persona, as he’s fought back from Red Bull rejection. Since taking a year away from F1, he’s spearheaded Williams’ charge up the grid, forcing team managers to re-evaluate his talent.

He’s already made a pitch for a reunion with Red Bull, saying that he would now succeed there with the knowledge that he has acquired, whereas during his previous stint he “still had to learn”.

While he does have a contract for 2025, that roadblock would likely disappear were a vacancy to open up.