Can McLaren brave desert challenge to claim '24 title? Qatar GP preview

The Woking outfit currently leads Ferrari by 24 points with just two rounds of racing remaining. If Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are able to outscore Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz by 21 points or more around Losail, McLaren will be crowned champions – now possessing a 45-point advantage heading into Abu Dhabi, where only a maximum of 44 points can be scored.

Such a result could be within reach, with a total of 59 points on offer this weekend courtesy of the sprint race format. McLaren has also been the team to beat for the vast majority of the 2024 season, and could be on course to replicate the double podium finish it earned at Losail in 2023, when both cars finishing inside the top five at eight of the last eleven races.

The team will likely be aiming for an even better result in 2024, but it may not even need it. Ferrari has historically struggled for pace in Qatar, and has scored a combined 23 points from its last two visits in 2021 and 2023. And the Scuderia’s uphill battle is expected to continue in 2024.

“I think [McLaren] are going to be very strong in Qatar,” Charles Leclerc told media in Las Vegas. “So we’ve got to have a good weekend and I would be very surprised if we recover points from them.”

“In Qatar, the maximum might be a P5 or P6 because with this car in a track like Qatar,” added Carlos Sainz. “I expect to struggle and I expect McLaren and Mercedes to be very strong. Also even Red Bull, given that they were strong also in quali in Austin.”

Losail’s razor-sharp kerbs ’rounded off’

Losail’s unforgiving kerbs caused chaos at last year’s Qatar Grand Prix, as after the first and second day of track activity, Pirelli engineers became increasingly worried about drivers suffering “micro-lacerations” in their tyre sidewalls – a phenomenon that had caused multiple punctures during the 2021 event.  

As mentioned before, this resulted in the FIA implementing an 18-lap maximum on tyre stints – meaning drivers had to push much harder in order to extract the most life possible out of their tyres before switching to fresh rubber.

In order to avoid a similar situation from happing again in 2024, Pirelli and the FIA have made some significant changes.

“The pyramid-shaped kerbs have had their tips rounded off at seven of the track’s 16 corners: the first two after the start, turns 4 and 10 and the three from 12 to 14, the section that had most stressed the sides of the tyres,” said Pirelli. “Engineers in the Pirelli Motorsport R&D department have carried out extensive and lengthy tests on the dynamic test beds in Milan, using a sample of the new kerbs supplied by the FIA. Furthermore, the engineers also analysed tyres from tests carried out by some Formula 1 teams in recent weeks at the Losail circuit, running pre-2024 cars.

“Even though the tyres were obviously not identical to those from the 2024 range, the acquired data has still been useful to confirm the results of simulations and the indications from the test bed.”

The Losail circuit is among the hardest on tyre wear, with tyres subjected to energy levels comparable to those at Suzuka and Silverstone, and so Pirelli has brought the highest trio of compounds in the 2024 range to the Qatar desert: the C3 acting as the soft, the C2 as the medium and the C1 as the hard.

In order to dissuade drivers from breaching track limits, there have also been gravel strips added to the outside of some of the newly refurbished kerbs to punish those who stray wide in an effort to go quicker.

Could Qatar decide the fight for second place in the drivers’ standings?

The drivers’ championship for 2024 is done and dusted, with Max Verstappen clinching the title in Las Vegas with two rounds of racing still to go.

The Dutchman’s former title ‘rival’ Lando Norris currently occupies the runners-up spot but lurking in the background is Charles Leclerc, who after four podiums, two victories and four top-five finishes in his last ten races is now just 21 points behind the Briton.

But beating Norris looks to be a tall order. In order to surpass McLaren’s front man, Leclerc would need to outscore him by at least 11 points over both remaining race weekends – something the Monegasque has done on only three occasions this season. Ferrari’s expected poor performance in Qatar could make things even harder for the Monegasque, with his SF24 more suited to high-speed straights and low-speed corners, of which there are few at Losail. Meanwhile McLaren is expected to prosper, having secured a double podium finish during last year’s Qatar sprint and Grand Prix.

But should Leclerc be able limit the damage this weekend, he could still be within mathematical range of Norris in Abu Dhabi. And as we’ve seen before, almost anything is possible at the season finale.

There could also be a little extra incentive for Leclerc to rip away the runners-up spot from Norris. Not only could it give Ferrari the upper hand in its pursuit of its first constructors’ title since 2008 – an achievement that is worth an estimated $140m – but the Monegasque could earn himself a hefty bonus too.

In 2023, George Russell revealed that Leclerc would get “a little bonus” from Ferrari if he finished P2 in the drivers’ standings – ahead of Sergio Perez. It’s possible that the same deal is in place for 2024.

Can drivers beat the Qatar heat in 2024? 

Several drivers have now stated that Qatar is the “most physical circuit of the year now” following the events of 2023, which saw the F1 field tour the high-speed Losail circuit with temperatures inside the cockpit rising to over 50c.

Of course there were a few odd factors which added to the challenge. With limited tyre stints and enforced three-stop strategies, drivers were forced to push their cars and bodies to the limit in order to extract the most they could out of their tyres. In searing temperatures, with led to reports from inside the cockpit of headaches, dizziness, nausea and muscle cramps. Logan Sargeant even retired with heatstroke.

Thankfully for the drivers, this year’s event is set to be much cooler – around 18C in the evening — and there is set to be no restrictions on tyre strategy either. This means drivers will be able to complete longer, less intense stints in which their bodies can relax, if only for a moment between each of Losail’s high-G corners.

“It’s the high-speed corners that are most demanding,” said George Russell. “A high-speed corner, you’ve got 5Gs on the body laterally.

“In Qatar, you’ve got the first corner, that’s really long in duration. You’ve got the triple right out the back, the left as well, after that the penultimate corner I think you’re pulling 4-5G. So, your body is just totally under this strain because your stomach and your internals are just being thrown around constantly.

“So, in Qatar, when it’s so quick, high downforce, no tyre deg, extreme heat – it’s a pretty tough one”.