Are Russell's chances of beating Hamilton as unlikely as bookmakers think?

F1

Once again, the real F1 battle looks to be for second place in 2024. Perez, Hamilton, Leclerc and Norris are seen as the favourites, but are bookmakers underestimating George Russell? asks Andrew Frankel

George Russell with Lewis Hamilton at 2024 Bahrain GP testing

The head-to-head qualifying record of Hamilton and Russell isn't as clear as it appears

Kym Illman/Getty Images

Andrew Frankel

We’ll know more by Sunday of course, but right now we’re in that achingly frustrating pre-season phase where nobody really knows anything about how this year’s Formula 1 season is going to pan out. Oh there’s plenty of opinion, a healthy seam of supposition, no shortage of speculation and the usual smattering of don’t-blind-me-with-the-facts optimism but right now we just don’t know.

So most turn to the pundits they trust, for their views tend to be the most informed and, therefore, surely more likely to be the most reliable out there? Except there is one other constituency of opinion, which despite having no F1 authorities to lean upon – at least not publicly – I think provides the best form guide of all. I refer, of course, to bookmakers.

When it comes to making predictions, who needs experts and psephologists when there’s a Ladbrokes down the road? I am not a betting man, but even I can recognise that the opinion of someone putting their own money where there mouth is, is always going to be more incentivised to consider all aspects than the average armchair enthusiast, or even professional pundit.

So what are those accountants of the turf telling us about the 2024 season? And what looks surprising? Please bear in mind also that odds change all the time so by the time you read this they may not be precisely where they were when I wrote it.

Charles Leclerc wth Lando Norris at 2023 US Grand Prix

Leclerc and Norris share the same odds as Hamilton of winning this year’s F1 title

Mario Renzi/F1 via Getty Images

Well Max is a 1-7 racing certainty for the title, which I don’t imagine is too surprising. But bear in mind that, just occasionally, stuff happens to thwart the campaigns of even the most competitive of competitors – think Lauda in 1976, Schumacher in ’99 – but, no, it’s not likely.

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More interesting is the person, or people, next most likely, with odds of 16-1 available on Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris. In one respect this is no surprise at all, as these are the either real or perceived number one drivers of the teams that finished second, third and fourth behind Red Bull in the 2023 constructors’ championship. But far more attractive from a betting point of view are their team-mates. I don’t think it is any kind of given that Lewis will beat George Russell over a season – their score in the two seasons they’ve been together is one-all – yet George’s odds are over twice as long at 33-1.

Nor do I think it in the least certain that, given Oscar Piastri’s rate of improvement, Lando is just going to drive away from him, yet you can get 125-1 for Oscar to win the title. And is it not curious that you can get 33-1 on Checo Perez despite the fact that unless Max falls under a bus, I have about as much chance of taking the title as he does? At least all the others can pray that the Red Bull is not as fearsomely competitive as it currently seems, for that appears to be their only chance. To me Perez is one of the least likely drivers on the grid to take the title.

Sergio Perez F1

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Red Bull

But of course none of the above will end up wearing the crown and in reality I’d not suggest anyone puts money on any them because of the overwhelming likelihood of losing it; but it nevertheless remains interesting to see the shape of the book as it forms beneath an apparently invincible Verstappen.

And because you can bet on anything, you can also get odds on who would be likely to win were Max not around, which is almost another way of saying who’s most likely to come second. Here there is no odds-on favourite but I’m not sure Perez looks a bargain at 5-4. I think Leclerc is a better bet at 5-2 and Lewis excellent value at 7-1 — longer odds, note, than the 13-2 you can get on Lando. But really my eye is drawn towards George at 14-1 and Oscar at 66-1, the latter only because of the wild disparity between him and his team-mate. But George at double the odds of Lewis? Were I of a mind, that’s where my money would go.

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