A year after Russell's first F1 win: has he fallen victim to the 'Hamilton effect'?

The 25-year-old has been more upbeat than you might expect, calling this year his “best season ever in terms of pure performance”, but the 2023 campaign has been overshadowed by unfortunate errors from driver and pitwall.

A clumsy error in Canada meant his Mercedes hit the wall hard at Turn 9 and he later retired; Hamilton finished third. While in pursuit of Lando Norris for second in Singapore, he tapped the wall at Turn 10 and went nose first into the barrier; Hamilton finished third again. Then came Japan, where a lack of race pace saw Russell defend hard against his team-mate in the opening stint and then ultimately lose out to Carlos Sainz for sixth in the closing stages. Hamilton finished fifth.

All told, Russell trails Hamilton 13-5 in race results and 10-9 in qualifying over the season so far. His 151 championship points total is 71 less than his team-mate.

“To be fair he is well ahead of me in the championship this year,” Russell told Motor Sport earlier this year. “But I think Formula 1’s… so unpredictable. At the start of this year, no one would have said Aston Martin would have been so quick, and with [McLaren] so slow, and then suddenly, that’s just reversed from nowhere.”

The current situation at Mercedes is quite a reversal from last year, where Russell appeared to be on terms with his team-mate from the word go. By the time the chequered flag dropped in Abu Dhabi, he had a healthy 35-point advantage over Hamilton in the drivers’ standings, becoming just the third team-mate to best the Briton over the course of a season.

The scene was set for more progression in 2023, while much of the talk around Hamilton involved retirement.

So where has it all gone wrong?

Some call it the Hamilton Effect. While Jenson Button, Nico Rosberg and Russell may have beaten him in the championship, each only managed it once, and the effort of doing so led Rosberg into immediate retirement.

Even F1’s perhaps most self-confident driver, Fernando Alonso, found himself irked in 2007 by both the sheer pace of his rookie team-mate in Hamilton and the galvanising effect it had on the team around him.

Consistently beating Hamilton has proved beyond any team-mate so far, as the seven-time champion’s ability to sense, adapt and strategise remains at a heightened level.

It has proved crucial in a season where the W14 is among many cars driven on a “knife edge”, as described by Toto Wolff. “You can quickly fall off it and lose the confidence,” he said. “On the other side, if you’re within that corridor of sweet spot, good things can happen.”

Finding that sweet spot has been a draining feat for the team. Hamilton has said that it is the “hardest car that I’ve ever driven to get right”, speaking of himself and Russell going in opposite directions with their set-ups; both struggling with the car’s balance and failing to find that “corridor of sweet spot”.

Even so, Hamilton has still managed six podium finishes this year, compared with Russell’s single top-three result, and that discrepancy may be explained by the different stages that they are at in their careers.

While neither is a stranger to underperforming cars — Russell having arrived in F1 with Williams — Hamilton has more experience of dealing with it in front-running teams.

Russell has explained that the frustration of driving a Mercedes but being unable to compete for wins has caused him to overdrive the car, but has also potentially affected his mental approach.

“It was quite clear this year from the beginning that we were not going to be fighting for a championship and I don’t know if that’s had an impact on my mentality or not,” he said, following the Singapore Grand Prix crash.

“There is a reason for all mistakes and that is just pushing to the limit, and in some instances pushing over the limit to try and achieve what is possible.”

But with the belief that his underlying pace has improved and the confidence of having won back-to-back GP3 and F2 championships, not to mention a Mercedes contract extension to 2025, Russell sees a close battle ahead.

“I think when I look at my championship-winning years in junior formulas I was the driver who kept on getting results, it’s the long game,” he said. “I can assure you once we are in a position again to win a championship I will be back to the ways that I know how to win a championship.”

Competing with Hamilton for a title would be something to watch, although it’s an attitude that many of Hamilton’s team-mates have arrived with. “On good days I could beat Lewis, no problem,” said Valtteri Bottas to Swiss newspaper Blick. “But his base level was so high that he could just pull off the performances he needed. It’s very hard to accept, because every driver rates himself very highly.”

Perhaps a smooth weekend in Brazil, with an upgraded and improved Mercedes can reset the clock for Russell and — a year late — provide a springboard to take on his illustrious team-mate.