7 winners and a proper title fight: a 2023 F1 season without Verstappen

Max Verstappen crushed all before him in the 2023 F1 championship, delivering one of the most impressive year-long performances that racing has ever seen.

It will go down in history as one of the greatest seasons but, for many of those watching race by race, it became too predictable, despite a closely-matched midfield, rife with wheel-to-wheel fighting, trailing behind the Red Bull.

Those battles were often overshadowed by the Dutchman’s record-breaking run, though. Without that, 2023 could have provided one of the most exiting and unpredictable seasons we’ve seen.

To explore the prospect further, we’ve removed Verstappen from every race of the year and adjusted other drivers’ finishing positions and points accordingly. It’s a model that isn’t without its flaws but does put the spotlight on the midfield battle: one where Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin occupied six of the first eight podiums of the season. After Mercedes and Ferrari found its feet, Lewis Hamilton, George Russell, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz all became front-running contenders.

Then came the resurgence of McLaren: a team that began the season as a perennial backmarker but ended it as the fourth-fastest constructor on the grid — its MCL60 capable of podium finishes and even a sprint race victory on pure pace.

By the time F1 left Abu Dhabi, only 110 points separated second and eighth in the drivers’ standings — an indication just how tight the battle for second place was throughout 2023. Without the Dutchman on the grid, how would 2023 have panned out?

The title race 

If there had been no Verstappen effortlessly gliding into the distance, grand prix weekends in 2023 would have been more unpredictable than they have been for a decade, with the drivers’ title in the balance for almost the whole season.

Of course, it’s impossible to know exactly how a title battle without Verstappen would have affected strategies: whether Ferrari and Mercedes would have thrown all of their efforts behind one car; or whether some drivers might have taken more risks knowing that a race victory was possible and the championship open. Perez also gets an advantage in the model, as there is no team-mate to take points away from him.

But by removing Verstappen from the equation and adjusting the points totals accordingly, it’s clear to see that it would have been a season of the ages — despite the obvious gap in the line-up.

On our revised 19-car grid, Red Bull would still dominate to start with — as you would expect given Sergio Perez’s two wins from four races at the beginning of the year. To those Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan victories, he would add Bahrain and Miami. But then his lead would start to crumble with retirement at Monaco and a subsequent loss in form, bringing Alonso and Hamilton back into contention. You could argue that in this scenario, Red Bull would have tailored its car to Perez, giving him a greater assdvasntage — and that’s probably true, but that’s something we can’t predict here.

Without Verstappen, Alonso’s start to the year would have been even more meteoric; he’d have had four second-place finishes in the first five grands prix before recording his first F1 win since 2013 at Monaco, having started on pole. He’d have won in Canada too.

But his old foe would have been shadowing him closely. Hamilton would have won in Melbourne and Barcelona with podium finishes in Monaco, Canada, Britain, Hungary and Belgium. At this point in the season, Mercedes was still struggling to produce a car capable of taking on Aston Martin or Red Bull every weekend, but Hamilton’s consistency was grinding out the results.

And so, by the summer break, with 12 races run, including two sprints, we would have had a tantalisingly close fight for the championship.

The 2023 F1 championship without Verstappen: after 12 rounds

Perez would have had a lead that could have been all-but eliminated in a single poor sprint weekend, while behind him Hamilton and Alonso would have been dead level on points and with two wins apiece; the latter technically in front with more second places.

Instead of a Red Bull walkover, the start of the year would have seen five different race winners from four different teams, with a Leclerc victory in Austria and Norris starting to enjoy McLaren’s resurgence, having finally recorded an F1 win with back-to-back visits to the top step at Silverstone and the Hungaroring.

Whereas, in reality, the title was effectively decided in Verstappen’s favour at this point, a season without the now-three-time champion would be heading into a hotly-anticipated second half.

The month-long break would have felt like a lifetime before the season got back under way at Zandvoort. In a race plagued by wet weather chaos and multiple red flag stoppages, it would have been the experience of Alonso that won out, despite Aston Martin losing ground with misfiring upgrades, closely followed by Perez, although his penalty for speeding dropped him down the order behind Pierre Gasly, who would have stood on the second step of the podium.

Monza would have brought Ferrari back into the fray, with Sainz and Leclerc both on the front row, although the tifosi would have left disappointed with a Perez race-day victory.