Who will win the number-one plate in 2025: Ducati, Aprilia or KTM?

MotoGP

Bastianini’s first sprint/GP double at Silverstone has turned the 2024 MotoGP title fight into a three-way contest with Martin and Bagnaia. But while Ducati is stronger than ever, it may lose the number-one plate

2024 British MotoGP

Bagnaia tried to make the early break, but his medium front tyre wasn’t working for him, forcing him to overcook his rear, which dropped him to third behind Bastianini (23) and Martin (63)

Dorna/MotoGP

Ducati is dominating MotoGP like never before – the Bologna brand has locked out every podium since Jerez and the only riders in the title fight ride Desmosedicis – but the question is this: which manufacturer will wear the number-one plate next year: Ducati, Aprilia or KTM?

Enea Bastianini’s first sprint/grand prix victory double has brought the sweet-riding Italian into the title fight, with leader Jorge Martin and reigning champion Pecco Bagnaia. Next year Bastianini will ride a KTM, while Martin will ride for Aprilia, so if either betters Bagnaia, the number-one plate will leave Ducati for the first time since 2022.

And Bastianini is as surprised by that possibility as everyone else.

“I don’t understand Ducati’s choice, because they’re losing two riders like me and Jorge,” he shrugged after winning Sunday’s British Grand Prix, his first GP success since Sepang last November.

Of course, Bastianini isn’t as consistent as Martin and Bagnaia, but the sniff of a championship and of a seven-figure championship bonus will focus his attention like never before; well, at least since he successfully fought for the 2020 Moto2 title.

“Enea hasn’t had the consistency,” said Bagnaia, who crashed out of Saturday’s sprint and struggled to third place on Sunday after winning the previous four grands prix. “But these two wins will give him a lot of motivation to bounce back in terms of consistency and he will be fighting for the championship. He’s very fast and he’s very good on used tyres.”

Sunday’s race — half-distance in the 2024 championship — told us a lot about the three title contenders, but most of all it highlighted the utter dominance of Ducati’s GP24.

The performance of Ducati’s latest-spec MotoGP bike has made the company’s race department stronger than ever, with a record-breaking seven consecutive GP podium lockouts.

Ducati British MotoGP

Ducati’s seventh consecutive podium lockout – no other factory has done this, not even Honda with its NSR500 and RC211V

The GP24’s secret isn’t only its mechanical performance, it’s how it generates grip from Michelin’s super-grippy 2024 rear slick, because none of the other bikes – including the GP23 – are close to exploiting the tyre to its maximum on a regular basis. They either can’t generate the grip or they overuse the tyre. Like everything in racing it’s a fine line between the two.

Compare this year’s Silverstone result to last year’s, when Aprilia’s Aleix Espargaró beat Bagnaia, with KTM’s Brad Binder completing the podium, just six-tenths down. Espargaró was top Aprilia this time too, but he came home a distant sixth, nine seconds down, his pace half a second a lap slower than the winner’s, while Pedro Acosta was top KTM, 16 seconds down, riding eight-tenths slower than Bastianini. A huge difference!

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“It was very frustrating to see one Ducati come past and go away and then another,” said Espargaró, who had Bastianini, Marc Márquez and Fabio Di Giannantonio come past him in the second half of the race as he ran out of rear grip. “I tried my best with the electronics – up and down with the engine brake and traction control – but there was nothing I could do against them.”

Espargaró qualified on pole – because the RS-GP works so well through Silverstone’s sweeping curves – and finished third in the sprint behind Bastianini and Martin, which suggested he had a chance in the main race. But the GP24 is even stronger in GP mode than in sprint mode. Why is that?

“With a softer rear tyre they have a limit, because the rear pushes the front,” explained Espargaró. “That’s why we are close in qualifying and the sprint, but with harder rear tyres [used in the twice-as-long main race] it’s so difficult to fight with them.”

Those who doubt Bastianini’s title potential haven’t been keeping an eye on his recent results. Sunday’s victory was his third podium in the last four races and last time out in Germany he was fourth, less than a second off the podium.

Espargaró 2024 British GP MotoGP

Espargaró started his 329th GP from pole but the Aprilia ate its rear tyre too quickly, so he had nothing for the Ducatis

The 26-year-old Italian has had a mostly difficult time since Ducati chose him over Martin for the factory team for 2023. He missed nearly half of last year’s races through injury and never really got on with the GP23. This year his results have been conditioned by mostly poor qualifying performances — his Silverstone front row was the first time he had started from the front row since the Portuguese GP in March! And however good his late-race pace might be (no one overtakes more riders!), it won’t be enough, unless he consistently qualifies at the front and has a strong first few laps.

Maybe, just maybe, Bastianini has turned a corner.

“During the summer break I thought a lot about how to do something more,” he said. “Many times I’ve missed my time attack, but this weekend my approach to the time attack was good.

“This time I made my best qualifying lap with my first tyre. Every other time I didn’t have the opportunity to do this and many times with my second tyre there were yellow flags or too much traffic.”

Perhaps Bastianini should continue betting on his first qualifying run.

Some people in the MotoGP paddock call Bastianini the Tyre Whisperer, because he’s so good at listening to his rear tyre and looking after it.

“I’m now softer with my movements on the bike, so I am more relaxed on the bike and I can be fast all the way through the race,” he told me towards the end of his rookie MotoGP season in 2021.

But his ability to eke out race-long grip from his rear tyre isn’t only about how he plays with rear grip. He has a special feeling with the front tyre, which allows him to force the front tyre to turn the bike, thus saving the rear for later in the race when he needs it most. Hence his devastating late pace.

MotoGP evolution 2024 British GP MotoGP

Three quarters of a century of MotoGP technology in one photo – an AJS Porcupine twin, which won the inaugural 1949 MotoGP title, stands in front of reigning champ Pecco Bagnaia’s Ducati GP24s in Silverstone pitlane

Oxley

Bagnaia uses a similar technique – using the front for turning and for huge corner speed – but it didn’t work at Silverstone, because he didn’t have the front tyre he needed. The hard option was too hard for the cool conditions – he thought he might crash if he tried to race with it – and the medium wasn’t hard enough. And he had crashed out of the sprint, which made him cautious on Sunday, especially because he didn’t have the front grip he needed.

“The medium front was the best solution but it wasn’t the fastest tyre,” said Bagnaia. “I struggled a lot in braking. Normally I turn the bike with the front but this time I couldn’t do that, because I had a lot of locking and movement from the tyre.”

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At which corners did he struggle most with the front?

“Many times at one, three, six, nine, 15 and 16 I was locking and losing the front… It was difficult to stop the bike, so I was always running wide, so I had to use the gas to turn the bike, so I had too much spin and finished my rear tyre.”

That’s why Bagnaia dropped like a stone in the final stages and was nearly caught by Márquez, who said he would’ve had a go at the world champ if he wasn’t also in cautious mode, because he too had crashed out of the sprint.

“Maybe a podium would’ve been possible… or another crash,” grinned the six-time MotoGP champion.

The only rider to use the hard front was Espargaró, who began having doubts on the grid as a light rain fell and the track temperature dropped.

“On the grid I was very afraid,” said the 35-year-old after his 329th GP.

Bastianini’s Hailwood replica helmet

Bastianini’s Hailwood replica helmet – nine-times world champion Hailwood won his first GP aboard a Ducati in 1959

Oxley

In fact the hard front worked well for Espargaró, but it wasn’t an easy choice. Martin’s front worked fine when he was chasing Bagnaia for the first half of the race, the heat from the leader’s GP24 keeping the tyre at a good temperature. But soon after he took the lead on lap 12 of 20 the tyre cooled down a bit, making front grip sketchy.

“Behind Pecco I felt good, but when I was in front I struggled a bit to stop the bike,” said Martin who regained the title lead he had lost to Bagnaia when he crashed out of last month’s German GP. “Then when I saw Enea was getting close I pushed a lot to keep him behind and then I made that mistake,”

The same happened to Márquez in the sprint – he was fine chasing the lead back but when he found himself alone his front tyre cooled and he lost the front braking for Vale.

Bastianini – whose flowing technique really suits fast and flowing Silverstone – had been closing on Martin since he passed Bagnaia with seven laps to go, taking tenths out of the leader each lap and using the rear grip he had saved to make some glorious sideways exits from Woodcote.

Eventually the pressure told on Martin, who ran super-wide into Turn 3 on the penultimate lap, gifting the lead to his former Moto2 and Moto3 rival.

Martin knew he was done and was 1.9 seconds down at the chequered flag. Bagnaia had also waved the white flag, a further four seconds back.

Bastianini’s sixth MotoGP victory (four with Gresini Ducati in 2022 and one last year) was extra special because it came at the race celebrating MotoGP’s first 75 seasons. All 11 MotoGP teams ran special retro liveries, and although the factory Ducati team’s effort (inspired by its 2003 Desmosedici) was somewhat lame, Bastianini’s retro helmet design was superb.

Hailwood on a factory Ducati 125 1960

Hailwood on a factory Ducati 125. Both Ducati and Ferrari used the prancing horse to pay tribute to Italian WW1 flying ace Francesco Baracca, who wore the logo on his planes. Ducati retired the horse after Enzo Ferrari had a chat with Ducati engineer Fabio Taglioni. It was Ferrari who had encouraged Taglioni to develop desmodromic valves.

Ducati

He wore a Mike Hailwood replica, which was particularly fitting because Britain’s most successful grand prix rider of all time took the first of his 76 GP victories aboard a factory Ducati desmo 125 at the 1959 Ulster GP. Hailwood was only 19 at the time and only got the bike because his wealthy father (a motorcycle dealer) agreed to import Ducatis to Britain.

The next MotoGP weekend at Red Bull Ring (16-18 August) will of course be crucial for Bastianini. Bagnaia’s technique is perfectly suited to the stop-go circuit and Martin scored his first MotoGP victory there, whereas Bastianini has never finished better than tenth. However, Bastianini started from pole in 2022 and was with the leading group until he had to withdraw with brake problems.

If Bastianini runs up front in Austria then a three-way championship battle is game-on.