Question: Who can stop the Ducati steamroller? Answer: probably no one

MotoGP

Once again Ducati has looked unstoppable in MotoGP pre-season testing, but who had the fastest top speed at the Lusail tests? Yamaha!

Overhead view of Pecco Bagnaia in MotoGP 2024 preseason testing

Bagnaia is making it look easy – and there’s nothing more worrying for his rivals than that

Ducati

Mat Oxley

At the end of last season, twice MotoGP world champion Pecco Bagnaia said, “It seems impossible to ask for more,” from his Desmosedici, but more is exactly what Ducati has given him: more power, more braking, more stability. Pretty much a little bit more of everything that you need to get around a race track as fast as you can.

The 27-year-old Italian goes into his sixth season of MotoGP after topping both pre-season tests – at Sepang, Malaysia, earlier this month and at Lusail, Qatar yesterday. Which suggests that it’s not just his bike that’s improved, but him too. A worry for anyone with their eyes on his crown.

Bagnaia says he wants to become one of the all-time greats and if he wins a third consecutive title he will be on his way, because the only riders to have won a hat-trick so far are Geoff Duke, John Surtees, Giacomo Agostini, ‘King’ Kenny Roberts, Wayne Rainey, Mick Doohan, Valentino Rossi and Marc Márquez.

That’s the MotoGP pantheon right there. Sure, Bagnaia’s got the best bike on the grid, but so did Surtees, Ago, Doohan and Rossi.

Usually, riders disagree on who they think will win the title, but not this time. Pretty much everyone named the 2022 and 2023 champion as 2024 favourite, including 2023 runner-up Jorge Martin, who likes to try unsettling his rivals by making muscular statements.

2024 MotoGP preseason testing timesheet

The top ten covered by seven tenths and Honda and Yamaha nowhere

Dorna

At Sepang the four fastest riders all rode Ducatis – GP24s and 23s. At Lusail five of the top eighth were on GP24s and 23s: Bagnaia chased by team-mate Enea Bastianini, fourth fastest Marc Marquez and seventh and eighth fastest Jorge Martin and Fabio Di Giannantonio, half a second down on the man he beat in last November’s Qatar GP.

In other words, Ducati once again look like an unstoppable force, a MotoGP steamroller, a ‘rullo compressore di MotoGP.

At Lusail the top eight was an Italian motorcycle lockout, with ‘Captain Aprilia’ Alex Espargaró third, three tenths down on Bagnaia, followed by Trackhouse Aprilia’s Raul Fernandez in fifth, impressive since he missed most of Sepang due to injury, and Maverick Viñales in sixth.

Will the six-times MotoGP king be there when the racing starts?

Thus once again Aprilia look like the people most likely to prevent Ducati from steamrolling the season. The RS-GP24 is a better bike, with some fascinating downforce aero, including a diffuser in the seat hump. Fine-tuning that is proving tricky for some of the Noale factory’s riders, because changing the bike’s downforce balance requires the riders to adapt their riding technique.

Aprilia didn’t have its final engine spec for testing – that won’t arrive until the season-opening Qatar GP on 8th/9th/10th March.

Espargaró was the only rider in the same game as Bagnaia and Bastianini when it came to race simulations, suggesting that he will be in the fight at Lusail. Viñales was a bit slower, same as Martin and Di Giannantonio. The rest were relatively nowhere, including Marco Bezzecchi who’s not having a great time with his GP23.

Marc Marquez cornering in 2024 MotoGP preseason testing

Fourth fastest and only one crash in six days of testing were important numbers for Marc Márquez

Dorna

Marc Márquez didn’t do a simulation. He started one, riding with brother Alex, but slid off. That was his first crash in six days of riding his GP23, something he was keen to point out at the end of the test. Remember, he crashed his RC213V more than 190 times during around 170 race weekends, so six days with one tumble is significant in itself.

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Will the six-time MotoGP king be there when the racing starts? He’ll be up front somewhere but he’s still adapting his riding style from the Honda. Aboard the RC213V he made his time charging into corners, whereas the Ducati is all about the exit, allowing the bike to transfer its massive torque to the racetrack, which is its strongest feature.

KTM is trying so hard to catch the Italians but still coming up short, despite luring so many engineers from Ducati. The Austrian brand is MotoGP’s only manufacturer (including Suzuki, which quit at the end of 2022) not to have won a dry GP in the last two and a half years. Its last dry GP victory came at Barcelona in June 2021, with Miguel Oliveira. That’s quite a drought.

Brad Binder was the fastest RC16 rider at Sepang and Lusail, where he was ninth, six-tenths off the pace. He rode the longest race simulation – but pretty much every lap was in the 53s, while most of Bagnaia’s shorter simulation were high 51s to mid 52s. A big difference.

KTM thus has a lot of work to do to get ready for the first races. But it was in the same situation after last year’s final pre-season tests at Portimao but managed to turn things around for the start of the season. They will be burning the midnight oil once again in Mattighofen.

Aleix Espargaro in sunset of 2024 MotoGP preseason testing

Espargaró rides into the sunset – he was the only ride in the same league as Bagnaia and Bastianini in race simulations

Dorna

Rookie Pedro Acosta dazzled occasionally during testing. He was ninth at Sepang and 15th at Lusail. But none of the top riders who followed him on track have any doubt – he doesn’t look like a rookie.

The two days at Lusail were grim for Honda and Yamaha – nothing seems to have changed for the Japanese manufacturers since last year.

The fastest rider on a Japanese bike was 2021 champ Fabio Quartararo, way down in 14th, more than a second behind Bagnaia. Then his new team-mate Alex-Rins in 16th, then all four Honda riders in a row, from 17th to 20th – Johann Zarco, Takaaki Nakagami, Joan Mir and Luca Marini.

Mir had liked the new Honda during last November’s tests at Valencia, but Sepang and Lusail are different kinds of racetrack.

Never forget the usual MotoGP caveat. We never know what will happen in MotoGP

The Repsol pair were both ill on the final day, but there’s no doubt that both factories still have a long road ahead of them before they can even think about reclaiming their former glories. They have their new concessions, of course, but even these don’t guarantee success.

The main problem for both is corner-exit traction, which means electronics, because the Honda has good power and the Yamaha had good top speed at Lusail. Indeed Quartararo had the best average top speed at Lusail, with Rins fourth, so Luca Marmorini’s engine is doing the job.

Both Japanese factories have struggled ever since MotoGP’s Magneti-Marelli spec ECU arrived in 2016 (Márquez made the difference with his riding), as one HRC engineer told me, “Now we have to think like Italians”.

Both Honda and Yamaha now have Italian electronics wizards, but they still can’t unlock the full potential of the Magneti electronics.

Yamaha of Fabio Quartararo in 2024 MotoGP preseason testing

Quartararo’s Yamaha had the best top speed at Lusail but his time attacks and race pace were far from good enough

Yamaha

Ducati leads in this area, and not in only in how we generally think of race electronics. The company also leads the way in artificial intelligence and machine learning, two types of computer technology that allow computers to think better than humans, depending on the data fed into the computer, of course.

These technologies require vast amounts of data, and vast amounts of data is what only Ducati has, with twice as many bikes on the grid as anyone else.

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It’s rumoured that Ducati has what’s called geometric deep learning software, which allows its engineers to find answers to their questions several thousand times faster than more normal programs. Imagine what a difference that makes in a race weekend, when you can get answers that would normally take hours in a few seconds.

Which is all wonderful. But never forget the usual MotoGP caveat. We never know what will happen in MotoGP because riders crash and riders get hurt. Last year there were more crashes than ever before and more than twice the number of riders missed Sunday races in 2023 than they did in 2022, due to crashes and injuries, largely caused by the new sprint format and sprint races.

In other words, staying healthy is even more important than having the fastest bike on the grid.

 

Top ten fastest average top speeds at Lusail

(Lusail record is 225.1mph/362.4kph, with a tailwind)

1 Quartararo (Yamaha) 216.2mph (347.9km/h)
2 Acosta (GASGAS) 215.9mph (347.4km/h)
3 Di Giannantonio (Ducati) 215.9mph (347.4km/h)
4 Bagnaia (Ducati) 215.4mph (346.6km/h)
5 Rins (Ducati) 214.9mph (345.8km/h)
6 Oliveira (Aprilia) 345.6mph (214.7km/h)
7 Martin (Ducati) 214.2mph (344.8km/h)
8 R Fernandez (Aprilia) 214/1mph (344.6km/h)
9 Binder (KTM) 214.0mph (344.5km/h)
10 A Marquez (Ducati) 214.0mph (344.5km/h)

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