Andrew Frankel: ‘I think we’re in for a far better F1 season in 2024’

There are plenty saying the 2024 Formula 1 season is a foregone conclusion. They point to recent periods of power by Mercedes, Red Bull and back to Ferrari which won respectively eight, four and six constructors’ titles on the trot in their dominant eras. So it would seem that Red Bull’s current winning streak, on paper the most dominant team since Alfa’s clean sweep in 1950 (which was only six races long if you exclude the Indy 500), is just getting going.

And the reason for this, they continue, is that Red Bull would have known early on that the title was theirs, so they’d have been able to divert human and financial resources to their 2024 car while everyone else was piling their resources into closing the gap.

I’m not so sure. Because it’s not just Red Bull that must have known the final destination of both titles long in advance, and were you one of its rivals, would you chuck everything you had at what you already knew to be a lost cause? Or would you simply accept the inevitable and turn your attention to next year’s car too? Of course it’s not as simplistic as that and we saw from some of the extraordinary see-sawing of form behind the Red Bulls, particularly from the McLaren and Aston Martin teams, that some were clearly very focused on the current season and the financial rewards of doing well in the championship race.

But I still think we’re in for a far better season next year and while I fully expect Red Bull to win again, will it be by such a massive margin as we saw in 2023? I think not.

Another thing likely – but not guaranteed – to take place in 2024 is a general election. And while I can raise precisely zero enthusiasm for any of the available options, I’ll still be following closely because I have a great interest in politics as a subject, if not politicians as individuals. What I don’t understand is the credence given to polling data. If you want to know who’s going to win, why not ask a bookmaker instead? Unlike psephologists, bookies have to put their money where their mouths are, so who’s more likely to get it right?

Even so, the odds currently quoted for next year’s driver’s world champion are curious to say the least. As I write this the best I can find for Max is 1/3 which is fair enough. But who would you say was second favourite? It’s not Checo, Lewis, Fernando or Charles, despite them finishing respective second, third, fourth and fifth in the 2023 title chase. It’s Lando, at 8/1. Lewis is down at 12/1, you can get 33/1 on Charles and 40/1 on Fernando. The only one who looks expensive is Checo at 28/1 because unless some calamity befalls Max, I’d say there were few people on the entire grid less likely to take the 2024 crown.

Generally I am not a betting man but who’d find my fiver if I were? George Russell, at 25/1, looks like the best value on the grid. Yes, it’s true that Lewis had the better season in 2023, though I’d say George just had the edge in 2022. And the raw speed is not in doubt: in the qualifying head-to-head in 2023 he and his team-mate ended up 11-11, a team-mate generally regarded to be the best driver of his generation.

But every passing year helps George as it hinders Lewis, who will turn 39 before the start of the season. If Lewis wins the title he’ll be the oldest to do so since Graham Hill in ’68. So of course I think Max will win, and on balance I’d say Lewis might outpoint George again, but if I was looking for a big return from a small investment, it is the younger Mercedes driver who’d get my money. Or Leclerc.

Car journalists and editors in particular ascribe far more importance to ‘being first’ to review a new car than the general public. And it has long been the commendable view of this title that publishing the right review is far more important than cobbling something together in five minutes flat just so it can appear a little sooner. Indeed there are publications so desperate to be ‘first’ to review a new car its journalists are reduced to writing in advance by making educated guesses based on extant press materials and experience, then making rapid adjustments once they’ve driven the car.

“Is the Ineos Grenadier a brilliant alternative to the G-Class?”

Even so, and even if you’re not going to publish first, there is a certain frisson that comes with being the first journalist in the world to drive a new car and I’d be lying if I said I’d never felt it myself. But actually – and there was a time in my life when I’d never imagine I might say this – these days I enjoy just as much being last to a new car. The car itself has to have attracted strong opinions and, ideally, for those opinions often to be violently at odds with each other. And it’s been a long time since a better example has come along than the Ineos Grenadier. I missed its launch in January because I was chasing the Dakar, so watched from afar as the verdicts came in. There was a four-star review, derisory twos, a three and a three and a half.

This car is so different, with its ladder chassis construction, beam axle suspension and recirculating ball steering that no consensus has emerged. So is it a pointless alternative to a current Land Rover Defender from a brand of which people know little and care less, or a brilliant cut-price alternative to the greatest cult SUV of them all, the Mercedes-Benz Geländewagen G-Class? Well there’s one parked outside right now and tomorrow I’m heading off across Wales in it, both on road and off. I’ll tell all next month.

A former editor of Motor Sport, Andrew splits his time between testing the latest road cars and racing (mostly) historic machinery
Follow Andrew on Twitter @Andrew_Frankel