MPH: Will McLaren's secret weapon drown Verstappen's title hopes in Brazil?

Three laps later, Red Bull gambled on bringing him in to change from wets to inters. It was a bold bid for victory, one which would have worked if the rain had held off for a little longer. But as soon as it returned, that gamble was bust and Verstappen was forced to come back in for another set of wets, leaving him down in 17th with just 15 laps left. What followed was mesmerising as he invented new outrageous passing places, barely losing time, passing cars as soon as he encountered them. By the end, he was back up to third place. It was a stunning drive.

After being denied his first win here in 2018 by a lapped Esteban Ocon, he made his breakthrough Interlagos victory in 2019. But they were both dry races, as was his ’23 win when he was chased hard by Norris. The next wet one came last year, where, starting a penalised 17th, Verstappen scythed through the field and was in place to benefit from a red flag to get a free tyre change, this the final springboard to victory. Some of his passing moves under braking on the inside line into the Senna Esses were extraordinary, as he seemed to find grip there inaccessible to anyone else.

That’s a pretty formidable wet-weather Interlagos record and while it’s quite conceivable he adds to that legend this weekend, it’s far from a given. Why so? Two little snapshots of intermediates running at the British and Belgian Grand Prix suggest that on this tyre, the McLaren’s advantage is huge.

At Silverstone, Piastri passed early leader Verstappen and pulled away from him by 1.9sec and 1.5sec on consecutive laps before they each pitted from fresh inters. He continued pulling away at a huge rate, and by the time the race was neutralised by a safety car, Piastri had pulled out over 14sec on the Red Bull. Fourteen seconds in six laps! Once Norris found a way past Verstappen, he too was whole seconds faster.

We might reason that Verstappen’s low-wing choice – which had got him pole – was why his tyre deg was so much worse than the McLaren’s. Maybe. But that didn’t apply at Spa, where Verstappen had switched to a big wing. Between laps 5-11 on inters, Piastri pulled out 16 seconds on Verstappen in eight laps. There is something about the way the McLaren looks after its rubber which dramatically increases its advantage in the rain.

So that’s how it’s all poised as we head into a weekend where Verstappen really needs to take big points out of the McLarens to have a realistic chance of staying in contention for the title. The skies hold the key.