MotoGP title-fight, final round: it’s Superman versus Hulk!

2024 is the second year of this Superman versus Hulk duel. Superman is now in his fifth MotoGP season, Hulk in his fourth, finally with enough experience to fight the reigning champion on equal terms.

Both have been on the same bikes and with the same deals, on money and technical back-up, since last year, when Ducati chose Enea Bastianini over Martin for its factory team (what a mistake that turned out to be!) and the big bosses kept Martin sweet by giving him what they’d given Bagnaia, but in the Pramac garage instead of the factory garage.

Bagnaia and Martin may both be superheroes of motorcycle racing but of course they don’t have superpowers – they’re as human as the rest of us and therefore given to making mistakes.

Both have admitted that 2024 has been a championship of mistakes – a seesaw season during which the advantage has swung this way and that as they take turns at winning, messing up and crashing out.

The championship lead has changed hands five times over 19 rounds, including four times over four consecutive weekends – Sachsenring, Silverstone, Red Bull Ring and Aragon – which makes this an unusually topsy-turvy title race.

Bagnaia has won ten GPs and six sprints to Martin’s three GPs and seven sprints. So how come Bagnaia isn’t leading the championship? Because he’s crashed out of six races to Martin’s two. Martin has been by far the more consistent.

Therefore the Spaniard goes into the Barcelona finale leading the Italian by 24 points. So he needs 14 points – two sixth places would do it – to take the championship, even if Bagnaia wins the sprint and the Grand Prix.

Sounds easy, right?

If you think that, you should cast your mind back to October 2006, when Valentino Rossi went into the Valencia season finale leading the championship and Nicky Hayden by eight points, when there were 25 up for grabs (not 37, like now).

Obviously there was no way Hayden was going to overcome the mighty Rossi, unbeaten since 2000 and at the peak of his powers. Hayden, however, did believe he could do it and he did.

This is the story of the 2024 season so far, from Qatar in March to Malaysia two weeks ago…

The pattern was set straight away: Martin won the sprint – “Because I’m a really explosive guy” – and Bagnaia won the GP. But both struggled with chatter from Michelin’s super-grippy 2024 rear slick. Bagnaia after the sprint: “I had big chatter from the rear”. Martin after the GP: “We had vibration entering corners, also in the middle of corners and when I open the throttle”.

Qatar GP results

The Ducatis were again fast but still beset by chatter. The problem was worse in the sprint, in which Martin and Bagnaia used the softer rear tyre. (Usually, more grip means more chatter.) On Sunday, Bagnaia struggled to get his bike turned and was fighting for fifth with Marc Márquez when they collided and both went down. Martin took the championship lead.

Portuguese GP results

And still Ducati had chatter – indeed this is the only GP so far where a rival brand won and there was only one Ducati rider on the podium. Martin, “We had a lot of vibrations, I was close to crashing in a lot of corners”. Bagnaia, “The bike was moving a lot at the front and I was feeling some vibrations at the rear, so I had to ride defensively”. Even Gigi Dall’Igna was getting worried.

Americas GP results

Ducati engineers simulated multiple solutions. During Jerez practice Bagnaia tried different front forks and swingarms – Ducati had fixed its chatter problem! No coincidence that this was its first podium lockout of 2024. However, Bagnaia crashed out of the sprint due to a collision, while Martin crashed out of the lead of the GP. This was the super-grippy rear pushing the front.

Spanish GP results

Martin shifted into top gear at Le Mans: pole, start-to-finish sprint win and GP victory. Bagnaia used his spare bike in the sprint after a Q2 crash and it quit on him. He led the GP, but Martin and Márquez got him when he ran out of grip. No wonder Martin was talking big, “I’m much stronger than last season, improving my skills a lot, not only on the racetrack, also my mentality”.

French GP results

Catalunya was super-slippery – Bagnaia was the third leader of the sprint race to crash out! “It’s very critical, you can crash without doing anything, it’s like riding flat track,” he said after his third consecutive sprint DNF. Martin made the most of it: “I feel that here the rider makes the difference”. Bagnaia beat him in the GP but Martin left Barcelona 39 points in front!

Catalan GP results

This is where Bagnaia started his fightback, with his first sprint/GP double since Austria 2023, leading every lap of both races and breaking the GP record by more than a second a lap! Michelin’s new rear slick in full effect. Martin has a bad weekend with Michelin’s front, crashing out of the sprint and unable to attack Bagnaia in the GP, due to his front overheating.

Italian GP results

Bagnaia was imperious once again – in two weekends he had closed the points gap from 39 to ten. “I love the smoothness of Assen’s fast corners,” he said. “I love to enter very fast, lean and control the gas to exit well. That’s always fantastic for me”. And Martin admitted he wasn’t fast enough. “I didn’t think I was able to win at any moment of the weekend.”

Dutch TT results

Martin threw away 25 points when he crashed on the penultimate lap of the GP. It was the same crash as Jerez and Mugello – the rear tyre gripping so well that it took away front grip. “There’s something there that’s making me crash,” he said. Bagnaia was beaten into third in the sprint but he rode a perfect GP to lead the championship for the first time since Qatar.

German GP results

This time it was Bagnaia’s turn to mess up. A third sprint crash. “Many times I was locking and losing the front,” he said, referring to the rear-push issue. Martin took second to Enea Bastianini in both races to regain the championship lead, by three points. His engineers had changed his geometry to load the front tyre better and reduce rear push.

British GP results

The pendulum swung again! Bagnaia fine-tuned his riding to avoid rear-push crashes and retake the points lead: “Here it’s easier to manage because you can use more rear brake to have a rear slide before entering corners.” Martin gave chase but explained: “We are so on the limit with front temperature, so when you are three tenths or closer to the rider in front it’s impossible to get closer.”

Austrian GP results

Bagnaia started from the super-slippery side of the grid, getting two bad starts. He was ninth in the sprint, struggling with front-end feel. He staged a great comeback in the GP, only to collide with Alex Márquez. Both crashed. Martin took two more seconds, behind Marc Márquez, and retook the championship lead for the third and last time.

Aragon GP results

And again! Martin rode a brilliant sprint to beat Bagnaia but got it wrong in the GP, swapping bikes when drizzle started falling. The rain never really came, so he had to change bikes again. The sketchy conditions helped Márquez to another win, while Bagnaia kept things safe in second, which closed the points gap from 22 to just seven.

San Marino GP results

Second time out at Misano, Bagnaia bettered Martin in the sprint and looked like clawing back more points on Sunday. But his rear slick didn’t work until well into the race, after which he began a charge that ended when he lost the front, another rear-push crash. That left Martin battling for victory with Bastianini. On the last lap Bastianini barged past to win.

Emilia-Romagna GP results

Martin started the sprint from pole and fell on the first lap, zero points! “I was over-confident.” He bounced back on Sunday with a start-to-finish win, his first GP success since Le Mans. But Bagnaia was relishing being the hunter, not the hunted: “When you are behind and you have to win it’s easier to win. When you are in front you have to think too much; it’s not helpful.”

Indonesian GP results

Martin paid a heavy price for a Q2 crash which left him on row four. He made it through to fourth in the sprint and second in the GP, putting Bagnaia under serious pressure. But whatever he put on Bagnaia, the world champion clicked up another gear, never letting his pursuer get within half a second. In two days he had halved his points disadvantage.

Japanese GP results

This was the first time Bagnaia had been in real trouble all year. He struggled to get his bike turned through Phillip Island’s fast sweepers. Meanwhile Martin left everyone standing in the sprint and looked to have the GP won until Márquez arrived. But no worries, he went from ten points ahead to 20. Now Bagnaia was really worried.

Australian GP results

Martin made arguably the overtake of the year when he swept past Bagnaia to take second in the sprint. The move put Bagnaia so far behind on points that even if he won the last five races, with Martin second, Martin would take the title. But once again he bounced back in the GP, a flawless victory in treacherous soaking conditions. He wasn’t done yet.

Thai GP results

There’s rarely such a thing as a turning point in a season – usually there are several – and this was one. Bagnaia was chasing leader Martin in the sprint when he crashed out. Finally the title was really slipping away. He fought back to win the GP but Martin took second, so he’s a long way behind on points, with time running out.

Malaysian GP results