Of course the right driver has won the title. He was head and shoulders above the rest over the course of the season. But let’s look at the specifics of whether he might’ve won in the McLaren. Because there’s some recency bias in perceiving the McLaren as a faster car. As an average, the qualifying times over the season are incredibly close – the Red Bull actually faster by 0.07sec so far. This all pre-supposes that Lando Norris can drive a car comparably quickly to Verstappen. He’s made some astonishing qualifying laps this year and his pole in Barcelona was done in a car which at that time was no quicker than the Red Bull, slower in the fast corners, faster in the slow ones but over a lap, nothing in it. A lack of raw speed is not what has cost Norris.
So let’s put Verstappen in that McLaren and Norris in the Red Bull and then press play. Does Verstappen still take the title – and if so does he secure it earlier than he managed in the Red Bull?
Here’s a list of Norris’s lost opportunities and the points swing which resulted from each:
- Canada
A lost Norris win through not coming in under the safety car. Points loss 7 (14-point swing to Verstappen). - Spain
Lost to Verstappen off the startline. Points loss 7 (14-point swing to Verstappen). - Silverstone
Lost win to bad pit timing. Points loss 10. (13-point swing to Verstappen). - Budapest
Lost win at first corner to Piastri. Points loss 7. (7-point swing to Verstappen) - Monza
Lost 2nd to Piastri through losing lead to him lap 1. Points loss 3. (3-point swing to Verstappen
Verstappen not blowing any of those opportunities had he been given the McLaren would represent a 51-point swing in his favour (17 extra points for Max, 34 fewer for Lando).
Which provisionally would currently put Verstappen in the McLaren on 374 points and Norris in the Red Bull on 386. In which case, Verstappen in the McLaren would have a 12 point deficit to chase down in the final two races, with 60 available. Furthermore, two of those races Norris lost – Canada and Silverstone – were as a result of iffy calls from the pitwall. But let’s give Max the benefit of having GP still on his radio. In which case he wins them.
Pole-sitter Norris loses out to Verstappen in Spain
Chris Graythen/Getty via Red Bull
But could Norris have won all the races in the Red Bull that Verstappen did? Maybe not Brazil because that truly was a drive from the gods. But in the Red Bull’s dominant early-season form? Yes, without a doubt. Could he have won the start in Spain? Was that car or driver? Norris’ reactions were faster, Verstappen’s traction was better, so maybe yes. Miami and Imola, the McLaren’s trick new brake ducts were fantastic for looking after the front tyres and giving the car great late stint pace, but not good for giving adequate tyre temperature at the start of a qualifying lap. That’s the only reason Norris was behind Verstappen in those races (even though the safety car rescued him in Miami). Verstappen would have been similarly stymied. Could Max have done better than fourth in Monaco in a McLaren? Yes, probably. But it wasn’t a Ferrari/Leclerc beater around there.
So we can argue about the details, but fundamentally winning the title in the McLaren rather than a Red Bull would probably have been more difficult for Max, not easier. The Red Bull’s early season dominance was brief but decisive.