Why isn't 2025 F1 season as close as predicted? The past explains why

F1

McLaren's breakthrough in a near-four-year-old ruleset shows F1 rules convergence is a myth – just like Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull and Renault did in 2013, writes Mark Hughes

4 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 2013 Bahrain GP

Vettel at one with his Red Bull in 2013 after they and its engine supplier Renault had cracked the regs – like McLaren now

Red Bull

Mark Hughes

The 2013 Bahrain Grand Prix was the last at Sakhir before a major regulation change the following year, just as last weekend’s race there was too. The perceived wisdom is that the final year of a set of regulations will see the closest racing as everyone will have learned the secrets and their performances therefore will converge. It didn’t happen like that in 2013 and nor has it this season. In both cases there were unforeseen randomising factors preventing the expected convergence.

Back in 2013 it was the continuing combined mastery of Renault Sport and Red Bull in extracting more from exhaust-blown diffusers. Sebastian Vettel’s expertise in working with his Renault engine engineer Cyril Dumont in developing the software to exploit the diffuser blowing actually increased the Red Bull’s inherent aero advantage from the year before. “Ha, yes,” recalled Dumont a few years ago when recalling that season. “That was such a satisfying time. I had lots of fun on this subject. It was funny because the other teams had only discovered what we were playing with and then the era was over.

“I learned a lot from Sebastian because he was so sharp in feeling and feedback and about the driveability of the engine and we did quite a good job together making sure he has the engine response he was asking for. With the exhaust blowing in 2009-10 we developed some tricky engine set-ups very closely together. Some drivers don’t care and don’t feel much difference. But Seb could always pick up the point and wanted everything perfected. Then he could do wonderful things.”

1 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 2013 Bahrain GP

Vettel domination came in mastering the use of engine software with his sensitive driving

Red Bull

But in the first half of the season, there was an attempt at limiting the Red Bull’s advantage. An all-new specification of Pirelli tyre, one which had a notably weaker construction. It put a false ceiling on the downforce advantage enjoyed by Red Bull and for a time it sort of worked in mixing up the competitive order: the first eight races up to Silverstone saw four different winners from four different teams. But then came the debacle of Silverstone, the layout of which placed enough stress on the new weaker constructions to see eight failures in the race. Race Director Charlie Whiting had been on the point of red-flagging the event. From the next race, Pirelli was obliged to switch to the tougher 2012 construction and from there Sebastian Vettel won 10 of the remaining 11 races in his Red Bull, sealing his fourth consecutive world title in the process. There wasn’t much evidence of the expected convergence.

Related article

The Bahrain Grand Prix, the fourth round in the 2013 series, just as it was this year, was smack bang in the middle of the delicate soft construction Pirelli phase. There were a couple of Silverstone– foreshadowing tyre blow-outs; one for Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes in practice, two for Felipe Massa’s Ferrari in the race. They were put down to debris damage. But the false ceiling they imposed on the Red Bull was suggested by a discussion with a Pirelli engineer who said, “From the loads we are seeing the Red Bull is capable of generating, they’d be winning by a lap if we gave everyone tougher tyres.”

Adrain Newey explained further: “They were sensitive to high-load conditions so basically you couldn’t go through high-speed corners, certainly in race conditions, without destroying them. Given that our car was so good in high-speed corners it definitely helped when we went back to the 2012 tyres.”

In Bahrain, the strain is always on the rear tyres so the weaker fronts weren’t such an issue. Although Nico Rosberg pipped Vettel to pole position, Seb was in front by the third lap and proceeded to walk away from the field, winning comfortably clear of the light-on-tyres Lotuses of Kimi Räikkönen and Romain Grosjean. Rosberg’s Mercedes sunk like a stone as it overheated its rear tyres, finishing ninth, 41sec behind Vettel.

Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 2013 Bahrain GP

Rosberg took pole at Bahrain 2013, but Vettel was soon ahead

Grand Prix Photo

This year, the jack-in-the box has been ground effect’s final little trick as the teams have learned how to delay the bouncing threshold to be able to run incredibly low ride heights: the through-corner balance is destroyed, way too responsive on turn in, followed by mid-corner understeer as the centre of pressure aero changes are so extreme now. This new challenge only really began to become apparent in the latter stages of last season and so it’s almost as if the teams are having to master a new technology. Some have done it better than others and in the process domination has switched from Red Bull to McLaren over the last few months.

Such is F1’s complexity, the only predictable thing from one season to the next is its unpredictability.

Comments

Loading Comments