Which Red Bull will show up in Jeddah? - What to watch for at Saudi GP

The fifth round of the Formula 1 season in Saudi Arabia wraps up an intense first triple-header of 2025 in which Red Bull has been on a rollercoaster ride and McLaren has continued to consolidate its position as championship favourite.

Here we look at the main themes ahead of the Jeddah weekend.

Will Jeddah be more like Suzuka or Bahrain for Red Bull?

After winning in Japan and enduring a challenging weekend in Bahrain, it is still unclear which Red Bull will show up in Saudi Arabia this weekend.

Suzuka, one of Max Verstappen‘s favourite circuits, played to the strengths of the RB21 – or rather reduced the effect of its deficiencies – to allow the world champion to clinch a sensational victory. But that required an incredible qualifying lap and a flawless drive in the race just to keep the McLarens at bay right behind him.

Bahrain had the opposite effect and highlighted all of the weaknesses with the current car as Verstappen struggled with the balance and was miles off the pace on his way to a distant sixth that made the alarms ring at Red Bull.

Jeddah this weekend should, in theory, see the team run somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, and a better result than Bahrain should be possible as long as Red Bull avoids mishaps like the pitstop problems it suffered from last weekend.

Verstappen has enjoyed nothing but great results at Jeddah since the circuit joined the calendar in 2021. Two wins — including a crushing one last year — and two second places are a testament to the Dutchman’s affinity with the track.

Having said that, he had also won the last two Bahrain Grands Prix before this year’s debacle, so he won’t be taking anything for granted this weekend.

Who will lead McLaren’s charge?

Unless there’s a big surprise, McLaren should again be the team to beat this weekend, in spite of having a less-than-stellar record at Jeddah in the past four years.

The higher track temperatures should favour the MCL39, boosting the team’s chances of finishing the triple-header on a high. The big question, therefore, is which of McLaren’s drivers will be leading the charge this time out.

Oscar Piastri has been the more consistent of the two and has momentum on his side after a dominant win in Bahrain. Lando Norris, meanwhile, appears to be in a rut and after Bahrain sounded downbeat about his prospects of making progress quickly to regain the confidence that he has been lacking.

On top of that, Norris hasn’t had very good results at Jeddah, with last year’s sixth place as the highlight, and that was two positions behind Piastri, who also beat him in 2023.

On that evidence, the signs point to Piastri to again be McLaren‘s main man, but whether the Australian has completely eradicated some of the inconsistencies he suffered from during some races in 2024 is yet to be seen.

How big a role will softer tyres play? 

Tyre wear and overheating is set to be a significant worry for teams at Jeddah given the high track temperatures expected even for a race that takes place at night.

The city is forecasted to hit up to 35 degrees Celsius, which can translate into track temperatures of up to 60°C at times.

Although the Jeddah track surface is not particularly abrasive, Pirelli is introducing a softer compound selection (C5, C4 and C3) for Saudi Arabia. In contrast, the harder C1 (hard), C2 (medium) and C3 (soft) were used in the previous two races in Bahrain and Japan.

The aim with the softer tyres is to create more varied strategy choices after the previous races at Jeddah produced mainly one-stop strategies which always tend to produce more straightforward, read monotonous, races.

This year’s tyre selection is one step softer than last year, when only Valtteri Bottas made two pitstops.

Tyre overheating was already an issue for Red Bull in Bahrain and, softer tyres and a higher track temperature might lead to even more trouble.

All these elements will play in favour of the drivers who are more gentle with their tyres like of Piastri and Russell, who appeared to have mastered tyre management this year.

Will Ferrari end its podium drought?

Ferrari was the team with the only really significant upgrade in Bahrain, where it debuted a new version of its floor. That appeared to help Lewis Hamilton get more comfortable as the weekend developed, but Leclerc claimed he hadn’t felt a big difference in performance.

Looking at the final results, finishing 20 seconds behind race winner Piastri was nothing to write home about, particularly for a team still seeking its first podium of the season on a Sunday, five races in.

All in all, Ferrari considered the Bahrain GP weekend as progress compared to the first three races, and it’s true that the safety car didn’t help Leclerc’s cause, although a different result looked unlikely regardless.

So judging from the first four grands prix of 2025, Ferrari’s hopes of a podium finish in Jeddah appear to rely more on its rivals flopping than on the Scuderia’s own performance.

Will a clear midfield leader emerge?

The 2025 midfield continues to be somewhat of an unpredictable battle, with no definitive pattern having yet emerged to name one team as the leader of the pack.

In Bahrain, it was Pierre Gasly in the Alpine who, having failed to score in the first three races, had a stellar weekend on his way to seventh place. If not for a last-lap pass by a recovering Verstappen, the Frenchman would have been sixth.