Verstappen may steal the show as Antonelli closes on F1 title

Formula 1 heads to Austin for the United States Grand Prix with the championship picture becoming increasingly clear, even if the battle for supremacy on track is taking a rather different turn.

Kimi Antonelli is closing in on his first world title, and while a coronation at COTA remains unlikely, the Mercedes driver is running out of reasons to worry about his rivals rather than the points he needs to finish the job.

Max Verstappen, meanwhile, has rediscovered his winning touch at precisely the wrong time to mount a serious title challenge, but Red Bull‘s resurgence has made the four-time champion one of the most compelling figures in the closing stages of the season, raising the prospect that the driver dominating the final races might not be the one taking the title.

What to watch out for: Can Verstappen’s surge overshadow Antonelli’s title?

Austin offers the first opportunity for Kimi Antonelli to clinch a well-deserved title, but it is Max Verstappen who has become the driver to beat in recent races and who arrives at COTA as the potential favourite.

Red Bull’s late revival has transformed the four-time champion’s season, raising the prospect of an unusual end to the campaign in which the man winning the races is not the one crowned world champion.

There was a time when Verstappen’s chances of winning another grand prix this season looked extremely remote. Red Bull had struggled to find a consistently competitive car, while Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari had established themselves as the teams to beat and Antonelli had built an imposing championship lead.

However, the picture has changed over the past few weeks.

Verstappen has scored 94 points from the last 108 available, finishing second in Baku and taking victories in Malaysia and Singapore, where he won both the sprint and Sunday’s race, both from pole position.

He has outscored Antonelli by 28 points across that period.

Red Bull’s improvements have given Verstappen a car that is more predictable and easier to exploit, allowing him to demonstrate the kind of form that made him a four-time world champion.

His Singapore victory was particularly emphatic. Having secured pole position and won the sprint, Verstappen controlled the grand prix from the front, finishing nearly 25 seconds clear of Antonelli.

COTA has also been happy hunting ground for Verstappen, who has won four grands prix and three sprints at the American venue.

The obvious problem for Verstappen is that Red Bull has found this form too late to mount a serious challenge for the championship.

Antonelli leads him by 119 points with six rounds remaining, and it’s just a matter of time before the Italian clinches the title. Becoming champion at COTA might be a stretch though; he’d have to win the grand prix although to become champion at COTA would require him to win the race while Lewis Hamilton finishes lower than fourth and George Russell finishes no higher than ninth.

For the Italian, the danger is not that he will fail to become champion, but that the circumstances of his coronation could diminish the sense of achievement if Verstappen, finally in a winning car, proves untouchable.

A title won through consistency and an early-season advantage is no less legitimate than one decided in a final-race showdown, and Antonelli winning it in only his second year in the sport is an incredible achievement.

But the perception of a championship can be shaped as much by its closing stages as by the points accumulated over the preceding months, so if Verstappen continues to win, the ‘what ifs’ will be inevitable.

The more immediate question is whether Verstappen can maintain his momentum and make the racing itself compelling, even if the championship destination is becoming increasingly clear.

Antonelli doesn’t have to take any risks anymore, but it would be fascinating to see him go against Verstappen in similarly competitive machinery, something the 2026 performance swings have denied everybody.

For Red Bull, the late improvement is an encouraging sign that it has found a direction capable of carrying into next season. For Verstappen, it offers the chance to finish the campaign on a high and re-establish himself as the benchmark.

For Antonelli, meanwhile, it presents a final challenge of a different kind: securing the title while the attention is increasingly drawn elsewhere.

Who’s under pressure: Lando Norris needs to halt his slide

It wasn’t that long ago that Lando Norris looked to be hitting his stride. Two wins in a row and a near-miss in Madrid suggested he was building momentum to potentially become an outsider in the championship fight.

Three difficult weekends later, however, the world champion arrives in Austin with some questions to answer.

The turning point has been pretty stark. Norris endured a frustrating weekend in Baku, where a collision ended his race, before struggling to make the impact expected of him in Sepang.

Singapore offered an opportunity to reset, but instead produced another difficult weekend, culminating in a clash with team-mate Oscar Piastri in the sprint.

That incident was particularly damaging because of what it said about the situation McLaren now finds itself in.

With both drivers fighting for position, Norris made contact with Piastri, turning an internal battle into a problem for the team as well as the individuals involved.

Norris subsequently acknowledged that he needed to make better decisions, while McLaren was left to consider how to avoid a repeat.

The concern is not that Norris has suddenly lost his speed. His recent victories demonstrated what he can achieve when everything comes together. Rather, the problem is that he has struggled to put together a clean weekend at a time when McLaren needs consistency from both sides of the garage.

Errors, lost opportunities and disappointing results have begun to accumulate, making it increasingly difficult to dismiss each setback as an isolated incident.

From having an outside chance of entering the championship conversation, Norris has now dropped to sixth in the standings.

The pressure goes beyond one weekend. McLaren is third in the constructors’ championship, now with Red Bull only seven points behind, so every dropped point, and every internal clash, now has a direct cost.

Austin, the first race of the final triple-header of 2026, is a chance to reset. A strong weekend would calm things down. Another messy one could leave a bad taste that risks lingering into the winter.

Historical highlight: The shambolic Dallas Grand Prix

Austin is now an established fixture on the Formula 1 calendar, but it was not the first Texan city to host a grand prix. That distinction belongs to Dallas, whose one and only race, in 1984, became one of the most chaotic events in the sport’s history.

The Dallas Grand Prix was staged on a temporary street circuit around Fair Park on July 8, with organisers hoping to establish the city as a major international sporting destination.

Instead, the weekend became a battle against the elements, the track and, ultimately, the limits of human endurance.

The Texas summer heat was punishing, with air temperatures approaching 40C and the track surface reportedly reaching 66C. The asphalt began breaking up almost as soon as the cars took to the circuit, leaving drivers navigating a treacherous combination of loose gravel, bumps and concrete walls.

The organisers even had to delay the start while damaged sections were repaired following the support races.