How real are Red Bull's concerns that Verstappen could leave early?

F1

Helmut Marko caused a stir after the Bahrain GP with his worries that Max Verstappen could leave Red Bull early. But how real are those fears?

Christian Horner, Max Verstappen and Helmut Marko

Marko highlighted his concerns about Verstappen's future in Bahrain

Red Bull

Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko has never been one to mince his words, and his comments about being concerned that Max Verstappen could be tempted to leave the team early have sent shockwaves across the Internet.

“The concern is great,” Marko told Sky Germany after the Bahrain Grand Prix. “Improvements have to come in the near future so that he has a car with which he can win again. We have to create a basis with a car so that he can fight for the world championship.”

Marko’s words came after Red Bull’s toughest weekend of the year so far, with Verstappen struggling to a distant sixth place in a race in which he claimed “everything went wrong” and where he dropped to last place at one point.

All that came just one week after the Japanese GP, where the world champion put on a masterclass all weekend to beat the McLaren drivers and calm some of the fears that had appeared at Red Bull as early as pre-season testing about the competitiveness of its RB21.

As it turns out, the relative calmness lasted about five days, as it became clear from the start of practice in Bahrain that Red Bull was in for a very tough weekend.

The uncharacteristic chaos with the pitstops in Sunday’s race didn’t help Red Bull’s cause, but even without that, there was no doubt that the RB21 was far behind not only McLaren, but also Mercedes and Ferrari.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull, during the Bahrain GP

A tough Bahrain GP only helped boost speculation about Verstappen’s future

Red Bull

Red Bull’s real form is probably not as bad as the Bahrain weekend suggested, as everything that could have played against the team did, even things that are usually not a problem for it, like the pitstops.

But it’s also evident that the Japanese GP was not a reflection of how competitive the team is as a whole. The reality is that Red Bull is probably somewhere in between those two performances, and the Saudi Arabian GP this weekend could offer helpful evidence to judge where it actually stands in the pecking order more accurately.

Unfortunately for Red Bull, right now that is not good enough for Verstappen, who wants a car with which he can fight for wins and the title. As superb as the Dutch driver has been this year, not all weekends can be like Suzuka’s.

Although Verstappen secured his fourth title last year, sixth-place finishes have not been so uncommon for him as of late, as Red Bull’s problems began some time into the 2024 season. After a great start to the year in which it felt like he would crush the opposition, Verstappen was often playing defence throughout the year.

While Bahrain sixth place is one of the world champion’s worst results in a while, it is not unique, as he had also finished in that position four times across the 2024 season.

While Red Bull’s form has fluctuated significantly since the start of last season, there has undoubtedly been a downward trend that has led to it being in the current position in which is hard to imagine it sustaining a championship challenge all year long.

Max Verstappen at the Bahrain GP

Verstappen’s contract runs until the 2028 seasons

Red Bull

However, last year showed that things can still change quickly, even as the end of the current rules era comes to an end and teams are having a harder time finding more performance, so nothing can be ruled out.

The real development battle has not yet kicked off on track, and Red Bull will add many things to its car to try to make it more competitive. As McLaren’s Miami GP upgrade showed in 2024, changing the competitive outlook is still possible, and Red Bull will be pinning its hopes of Verstappen not feeling tempted to leave on its car becoming a better package quickly.

The Dutchman has a contract with the team until 2028, but Marko has openly spoken about some performances clauses that could help Verstappen leave early should he want to.

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How realistic it is that Verstappen will use that to find a way out of Red Bull only he knows, but comments like Marko’s in Bahrain will up the pressure on Red Bull to find competitiveness as soon as possible.

Verstappen has been linked with a possible move to Aston Martin for some time, and while it was initially believed to be just a logic conclusion of Adrian Newey‘s arrival at the team, the scenario started to sound more realistic earlier this year.

Next year, the Silverstone-based team will be powered by Honda, with which Verstappen has achieved all his titles in F1.

Formula 1 will enter a new rules era in 2026, and with it, Red Bull will switch to its own engine, whose performance is a big unknown, although that’s not exclusive to the Milton Keynes-based squad if rumours about the gap between engine manufacturers are to be believed.

Regardless, the engine that will power Red Bull from next year is another big question mark that will float in Verstappen’s mind if he decides to reconsider his future.

All in all, Marko knows Verstappen very well and has a close relationship with him, as evidenced by the driver’s comments last year, when he said that Marko ‘had to stay’ at the team as it investigated the allegations against Christian Horner. If Marko is saying something like what he did in Bahrain, chances are it is in sync with Verstappen’s thoughts, so Red Bull has to see the possibility of an early as very real if it continues to fall behind its direct rivals on track.

Leaving 2026 aside, Red Bull’s current form won’t help in quieting the rumours about Verstappen’s future, so taking a step forward with its car sooner rather than later will go a long way in giving him the confidence to make sure his future doesn’t lie elsewhere.

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