MotoGP reality check: Martin won the title because he rode better, not because Bagnaia crashed too much

A more accurate way of determining how many points a rider loses when he crashes out is to note where he was when he fell and count the points accordingly.

For example, when Martin crashed out of the Mugello sprint, on lap eight of 11, he was running third, half a second behind Marc Márquez and way behind winner Bagnaia. So that crash didn’t cost him 12 points for the win, did it? It cost him seven points for third.

Likewise with Bagnaia. When he crashed out of the Portimao GP on lap 23 of 25, he was battling with Márquez for fifth place, so the price of that fall wasn’t 25 points, it was 11.

This way of counting the cost of crashing – calculated by expert MotoGP data analysts Dimitri and Yanna Stathopoulos – gives very different answers, especially because Martin had a more costly habit of falling when he was at the front, while Bagnaia tended to fall when he was further back.

In fact three of Martin’s tumbles happened when he was leading races – the Jerez and Sachsenring GPs and the Mandalika sprint. Therefore those three crashes, plus his fourth (while third in the Mugello sprint) cost him a total of 69 points.

Bagnaia’s three GP crashes were from fifth, fourth and third places. His four sprint crashes were from fifth, fourth, second and first. These accidents cost him 72 points.

So Bagnaia still lost more points through crashing than Martin, right?

Wrong.

Crashes don’t only cost the crash victim points, they also gift points to riders immediately behind.

Martin was ahead of Bagnaia in three of his four crashes, so on each of those occasions his exit promoted his title rival one position.

During 2024, Martin’s crashes cost him 69 points and gifted 13 points to Bagnaia. So the actual cost of his mistakes was 69 plus 13, a total of 82 points.

Bagnaia was only ahead of Martin once when he crashed out, in the Catalunya sprint, so he gifted his title rival one point all season. His total looked like this: 72 points lost, one point gifted. Thus the total cost of his tumbles was 73 points.

Therefore Martin’s crashes cost him nine points more than Bagnaia’s.

Which gives us these grand totals:

• Martin scored 508 points, lost 69 and gifted 13 to Bagnaia.
• Bagnaia scored 498 points, lost 72 and gifted one to Martin.

If you add back their lost/gifted points, Martin won the title by 19 points, nine more than his actual advantage.

What does this mean? It means that Martin became 2024 MotoGP champion by riding better, not because Bagnaia crashed out too much.

That’s an important difference, which should be known.