Rain, thunder and Piastri's chance to make history: Australian GP preview

Jack Brabham and Alan Jones were also home winners of the Australian Grand Prix, but no Australian has won the race since it became part of the World Championship in 1985.

That could change in 2025, with McLaren looking competitive and Oscar Piastri buoyed by a new contract extension.

“Being here for the third time, obviously you know the track a lot better,” he said ahead of the race weekend. “You know some of the things to look out for in terms of the strategy, how to drive the car in the race. You always gain experience from every race that you can just transfer into the next…[I’m] definitely in better stead than I was the first time I came here two years ago.”

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Lewis Hamilton was qualifying for the Turkish round of the GP2 championship on the day Kimi Antonelli was born. Two months later, Hamilton was the series champion, with a McLaren Formula 1 contract for the following season.

Just over 18 years on, Antonelli replaces the now seven-time world champion at Mercedes with a weight of expectation that few teenage shoulders could bear.

By fast-tracking Antonelli to F1 after a single season in Formula 2, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff indicated that he saw the Italian as a special talent, and has repeatedly expressed his confidence that Antonelli has what it takes to succeed.

Others have tipped him for instant stardom, and comparisons are already being drawn to the immediate impact that the likes of Hamilton, Kimi Räikkönen and Lando Norris made on their F1 debuts at Albert Park. The stage is set.

What is the deal with Red Bull?

This time last year, Red Bull looked to be on course for another season of complete domination. Then Max Verstappen‘s terminal brake issue at the 2024 Australian Grand Prix gave Carlos Sainz a chance to win. Three races later in Miami, McLaren deployed a major upgrade that gave its drivers the performance to fight for victory. Since then, Red Bull has more often than not looked second-best.

In testing this year, it looked worse, with both Verstappen and Liam Lawson stuck in their pit garages for hours and the team unable to get to the point where it could run a race simulation. There were few clues as to how quick the car really was.

“It was not as smooth a test as we expected and the team expected,” said technical director Pierre Wache. “I am not as happy as I could be because the car did not respond how we wanted at times, but it is going in the right direction … it’s something we need to work on for the first race and future development.”

Verstappen tempered expectations this week, but suggested that a rapid improvement is expected: “I know that we are not the quickest at the moment, but again, it’s a very long season. If you would have asked that question here last year and then at the end of the season again, you know it looked completely different. So a lot of things can always change quite quickly in Formula 1.”

Where the Red Bull sits in the performance order will emerge this weekend, but don’t rule it or Verstappen out. If there’s one thing the team — that’s won four drivers’ championships in the past four years — knows how to do, it’s win world championships.

The moment of truth

Kimi Antonelli is far from the only driver with something to prove in Melbourne, in fact, the first race of the season could be a moment of truth for most of the grid.

New team-mate combinations will shed new light on how drivers are performing. 

• Will Lewis Hamilton have an edge over Charles Leclerc, showing he still has what it takes to win an eighth world championship?
• After outscoring Hamilton last year, will George Russell go on to dominate Kimi Antonelli?
• Is Alex Albon world championship material? Carlos Sainz should be a higher benchmark than Nicholas Latifi or Logan Sargeant ever were.

Antonelli is one of six drivers never to have completed a full F1 season. Each of them will be looking to justify their place on the grid, and Albert Park no easy venue to start, with its unforgiving walls close to the track and high-speed sections that demand commitment.

• Liam Lawson has the toughest job in Formula 1, judging by the drivers who went before him. Daniil Kvyat, Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon and Sergio Perez ended their stints as Max Verstappen’s team-mate looking broken, their confidence smashed. Lawson has reason to believe that he can avoid that fate, as we outlined earlier this week. It will be no small task to come close to Verstappen’s pace in both qualifying and the race though.
• There’s been no time for Jack Doohan to bask in the achievement of securing a full-time drive for Alpine, not with Franco Colapinto looming on the sidelines. Last year’s stand-in Williams driver has joined Alpine as a reserve, at the behest of team advisor Flavio Briatore who has taken every opportunity to praise the young Argentine, and stoke speculation that he’s in line to replace Doohan mid-season unless the rookie can produce something spectacular.
• Isack Hadjar moves straight into F1 after finishing second in last year’s Formula 2 championship, taking the seat at Red Bull sister team Racing Bulls. His task is to get on terms with Yuki Tsunoda, who remains with the team for a fifth season after Lawson got the promotion. One of them may need to make way for Arvin Lindblad next year: the Red Bull junior driver, racing in F2, has been tipped as a future champion by team advisor Helmut Marko.
• By the standards of other rookies, Oliver Bearman has it easy, with a long-term contract and the confidence of three grands prix under his belt, including his impressive maiden race for Ferrari last year when he replaced an unwell Carlos Sainz. The promise is there, and Ocon represents an accomplished benchmark.
• Branded a “B driver” by Helmut Marko, Gabriel Bortoleto gave an assured response in Melbourne, pointing out that Marko had got plenty wrong as well as right. “I’m sure I’ll prove him wrong at some point,” he said. That’s a clear objective, but whether the Sauber will allow him to achieve it is another matter.